In a parliamentary speech Jan. 12, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan referred to as the opposition “the largest downside of the nation,” searching for to painting the primary opposition chief and his aides as linked to terrorist teams and averse to Islam. The speech was extensively seen as a contemporary signal that Erdogan and his allies — hit by sagging ballot scores amid financial turmoil — would attempt to criminalize the opposition forward of presidential and parliamentary elections subsequent yr.
Such worries have been on the rise since final month when the Inside Ministry introduced up terrorism-related allegations in opposition to Ekrem Imamoglu, the extremely common mayor of Istanbul and member of the primary opposition Republican Individuals’s Social gathering (CHP), whereas prosecutors took care to say in an official indictment that CHP chief Kemal Kilicdaroglu had met with an affiliation of Kurdish imams, which stands accused of hyperlinks to the Kurdistan Staff’ Social gathering (PKK), the armed Kurdish group that Ankara designates as a terrorist group.
It began with claims by Inside Minister Suleyman Soylu that greater than 500 staff of the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) had been affiliated with terrorist teams. Imamoglu instantly requested the Inside Ministry for an inventory of names, however to no avail. As an alternative, the ministry announced its personal inspection on the IMM that discovered 455 folks linked to the PKK and dozens of others affiliated with far-left and different teams designated as terrorist organizations.
Professional-government media printed the names and footage of 30 of the “terrorist” staff. 9 of them turned out to not be IMM staff in any respect, whereas the remaining sued the papers for defamation.
Curiously, the primary paperwork the inspectors needed to see had been the lists of contracts the IMM has concluded and the enterprise licenses it has issued since 2019, when Imamoglu grew to become mayor, Tarik Balyali, the CHP spokesman on the municipal meeting, advised Al-Monitor. “What do these must do with a terrorism probe?” he requested, including that “totally political motives” underlaid the inspection.
Devlet Bahceli, the chief of the far-right Nationalist Motion Social gathering (MHP), the de facto coalition companion of Erdogan’s Justice and Growth Social gathering (AKP), was fast to name for Imamoglu’s elimination ought to the inspectors “set up against the law.” Erdogan, for his half, declared the mayor responsible already, saying that the IMM has turn out to be “the equipment of terrorist organizations.” Moreover, he stated that “the identical goes for Ankara,” elevating the specter of the same transfer in opposition to the Ankara Metropolitan Municipality.
For some observers, the inspection stems from the AKP’s grudge over the 2019 native elections, by which the ruling occasion misplaced its longstanding management of Ankara and Istanbul. Others consider the AKP is concentrated on the upcoming presidential and parliamentary polls. The elections are due in June 2023, however hypothesis is rife that Erdogan would possibly name snap polls this yr ought to he see a greater likelihood of successful.
Erdogan’s ballot numbers have steadily dropped amid economic turmoil, fueled by a extreme foreign money depreciation and skyrocketing prices, and rising allegations of corruption and nepotism in AKP ranks. In the meantime, Imamoglu and Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas, additionally a CHP member, have loved hovering reputation, with each polling ahead of Erdogan in a possible presidential race.
The native election outcomes got here from a coalition of opposition forces led by the CHP and backed tacitly by the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Social gathering (HDP), which has confronted a harsh clampdown and risks being outlawed on prices of collaborating with the PKK.
“No matter who the CHP’s [presidential] candidate shall be, the AKP-MHP alliance will search to affiliate that individual with terrorism and weave an election technique primarily based on narratives of nationwide survival and the safety of the state,” political commentator Evren Baris Yavuz advised Al-Monitor.
If a legal criticism is filed in opposition to the IMM, “such probes would flip right into a judicial stick” in opposition to the opposition, Yavuz stated. “The goal right here is to not acquire a authorized conclusion, however to imbue the general public with a way that one thing fishy is occurring within the municipalities.”
In his Jan. 12 speech, Erdogan drew a hyperlink between the CHP and the HDP and sought to depict each events as linked with terrorists. The AKP-MHP alliance, Yavuz stated, “is attempting to squeeze the opposition as a complete,” hoping that the accusations will eclipse the financial disaster, which at present tops the general public agenda.
In accordance with veteran journalist Ismet Demirdogen, the inspection on the IMM marked “the beginning of the AKP’s undeclared election calendar,” however the timing of the elections depends upon the success of AKP’s two most important present methods. “The primary includes anti-Kurdism and exploitation of faith and the second includes disabling the opposition’s potential presidential candidates,” Demirdogen advised Al-Monitor.
Kilicdaroglu was named within the indictment, he identified, and Imamoglu may be placed on trial for using folks linked to terrorism. And by implicating the Ankara municipality, “Erdogan drew Yavas, additionally touted as a presidential candidate, into the sport. They wish to block and discredit these three potential candidates.”
In accordance with Demirdogen, “The AKP’s final goal is to undo the progress that CHP municipalities have made [in reaching out to the masses] via social help and solidarity, paralyze these municipalities within the lead-up to the elections and discredit potential candidates. Then they’ll conduct opinion polls to see whether or not or not the voters is shopping for all this. Whether it is, they’ll promptly name elections. And if it isn’t, they’ll play for time.”
Requested whether or not Imamoglu and different opposition heavyweights might find yourself sidelined, CHP deputy chair Ali Oztunc stated, “They might entertain such intentions however wouldn’t dare to go forward as a result of the folks and the folks’s votes is what issues in democracies. The folks manifested their will within the elections in Ankara and Istanbul. They’ll achieve this within the basic elections as nicely.”
Nonetheless, the CHP final week despatched updated guidelines to its mayors throughout the nation, detailing what they need to do within the case of police raids, together with precautions in opposition to proof planting.
