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Russian President Vladimir Putin obtained his Syrian counterpart, Bashar al-Assad, in Moscow on Sept. 13 — the primary assembly between the 2 in Russia since 2018. Throughout their talks, Assad referenced former negotiations in Sochi and Nur-Sultan geared toward ending the battle, yet noted “the political processes which we used to hold out stopped roughly three years in the past.” In flip, the Syrian state information company SANA reported that the leaders of the 2 international locations mentioned cooperation in “combating terrorism and finishing the liberation of lands that are nonetheless underneath the management of terrorist organizations.”
The assembly was primarily in regards to the Idlib de-escalation zone, which is underneath the management of the Turkish military, in addition to the terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the pro-Turkish Syrian Nationwide Military (SNA), representing the so-called reasonable opposition. The SNA additionally controls zones named after numerous Turkish operations in northern Syria, together with operations Olive Department, Protect of the Euphrates and Peace Spring.
Turkish troops, which have been introduced into Idlib in response to an offensive by the Syrian military in February-March 2020, have demonstrated that they’re able to inflicting heavy losses. At current, Ankara has greater than seven dozen navy bases and strongholds on this Syrian area, staffed by 7,000-15,000 servicemen with tanks, artillery and air protection methods, together with the medium-range Improved Hawk system. Because the Turkish management has not reconsidered withdrawing from Idlib, the probabilities of returning the area to Damascus’ management stay slim.
The withdrawal of American troops from Iraq and Afghanistan most likely raises hopes among the many Assad regime that Washington will lastly determine to go away Syria, leaving its Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) companions to fend for themselves, as occurred in Afghanistan. In such a state of affairs, they and the Autonomous Administration of Northeast Syria (AANES) affiliated with them would face a direct assault each from the federal government forces, supported by Russia, and from the opposition SNA, supported by Turkey.
Towards this background, on Sept. 16, a delegation of the Meeting of Democratic Syria and AANES headed by Ilham Ahmad visited Moscow “on the official invitation of the Russian Overseas Ministry,” Hawar Information Company, the Autonomous Administration’s de facto official information service, reported. “The assembly was optimistic. The emphasis was positioned on a political answer to the Syrian disaster in accordance with UN Decision 2254 and the necessity for the Democratic Syrian Meeting to take part within the political course of. Additionally they mentioned the continuing violations of the sovereignty of Syria by Turkey. “
AANES is attempting to safe Moscow’s ensures to guard the Syrian northeast from invasion by the SNA and Turkey, and to have the ability to cut price with Damascus for particular circumstances for the area. Nevertheless, a well-informed Russian supply advised Al-Monitor that such requests from representatives of the Syrian Kurds are considered with skepticism by Moscow so long as the SDF is a navy ally of the USA.
Russian officers imagine that the SDF is making ready backup choices in case the Individuals depart. But when US troops stay, then the administration of the Syrian northeast won’t rush to observe the roadmap that it proposes to work out on the Russian facet.
Russia, in flip, is attempting to push the Syrian Kurds right into a dialogue with Damascus, however with out US enter. The implication is that the Syrian Kurds themselves should start to distance themselves from the USA, even earlier than Washington makes a last resolution on withdrawal.
On the identical time, the Russian facet continues to restrain Damascus from putting these areas held by the SDF which have been faraway from the American safety umbrella — for instance, some areas of the Aleppo province (Manbij, Tel Rifat and Ain al-Arab) and town of Ain Issa. An try and return them to the complete authority of Damascus would fully alienate the Syrian Kurds from Moscow, and the SNA and Turkey would even be able to concurrently launch an offensive in opposition to the SDF formations with the Syrian authorities forces.
Elevated assaults by Turkish drones and artillery shelling of SDF positions can also sign a restricted operation by Turkish troops and the SNA with a view to broaden the “Peace Spring” safety zone. Specifically, consultants have argued that such an assault could also be provoked by the Syrian Kurds themselves, who’re organizing assaults in opposition to the SNA and Turkish troops within the “Olive Department” and “Protect of the Euphrates” operation areas.
The rising variety of Turkish strikes on SDF positions are accompanied by extra Russian air exercise over Idlib. Thus, a doable assault by Turkish troops and the SNA on some weak areas of the SDF may occur in parallel with the offensive of the Syrian authorities forces on the southern a part of the Idlib, in Jebel al-Zawiya, with a view to seize a piece of the strategic route M4. That’s, we will discuss sure mutual concessions between Moscow and Ankara.
On the identical time, Moscow can use the Turkish threats to Kurdish formations within the Syrian northeast with a view to cut up the SDF, push the fighters and full models of this alliance to withdraw from this construction, and cooperate with Damascus. The almost certainly choice for the gradual reintegration of those areas into the Syrian authorities is the state of affairs from Daraa and Quneitra within the Syrian southwest — preserving the native administration and thru the method of reconciliation of the insurgent militants with the regime.
Bearing these details in thoughts, Russia will attempt to additional guarantee the established order in Daraa and Quneitra, whereas retaining the flexibility of native opposition councils to autonomously handle settlements and stay intact. Due to this fact, whereas Syrian state flags are being raised and checkpoints created in opposition enclaves — as concessions to Assad — the true energy of the Syrian regime there stays largely formal. Additionally, based on a consultant of the Syrian civil opposition based mostly in Moscow who spoke to Al-Monitor on situation of anonymity, the method to disarm opposition fighters in these areas is primarily a PR motion in his view. Many extra small arms nonetheless stay within the palms of the reconciled rebels in these settlements.
The way forward for this area will proceed to be a subject in Russian-Syrian talks. The doable development of a fuel pipeline from Egypt to Lebanon by way of Daraa and Quneitra is the one financial mission with the doable involvement of Damascus supported by the USA. Accordingly, it could actually take away different associated initiatives from sanctions with the participation of Jordan and different Arab states. Amman can be fascinated by sustaining the established order in Daraa and Quneitra, by way of which the fuel pipeline can go, whereas sustaining the enclaves of the opposition, albeit disarmed, however underneath Russian management, as a substitute of doable bases of pro-Iranian formations that will seem of their place.
