Sizzling Take: Iraq’s Sunnis stake their declare
Iraq’s election shock. Iraqis went to the polls on Oct. 10 to elect the 329 members of the Council of Representatives (parliament). One of many massive headlines from the election has been the good points for the Iraqi Sunni group, which make up about 22%, or roughly 9 million, of Iraq’s estimated 40 million inhabitants. 13 years after the USA deposed Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, an Arab Sunni, Iraq’s Sunnis are lastly positioned to take their declare to Iraq’s political future.
The primary awakening. Following Saddam’s overthrow in 2003, Iraq’s Sunnis largely abstained from politics and suffered at occasions beneath the sectarian post-Saddam governments, in addition to assaults by rogue Shiite sectarian militias. A way of disenfranchisement amongst Sunnis was compounded by a “de-Baathification” motion which uprooted {many professional} and educated Sunnis from their jobs, in addition to from management positions within the navy, which was disbanded by US decree. By 2007, Iraq was reeling from sectarian violence and Al-Qaeda terrorism. To quell the violence, US President George W. Bush added 20,000 forces to the over 130,000 US troops already in Iraq. Key to the technique for stemming the violence have been the Iraqi Arab Sunni forces who fought alongside the US, a pattern known as the Sunni “awakening” or the “Sons of Iraq.”
A second awakening. The elections this week confirmed that the Sunnis are rising as a extra cohesive political drive. Mohammad Halbousi, the Sunni speaker of parliament and chief of the Taqadom (Progress) Get together, has obtained, in keeping with the newest tally, 37 seats, second solely to the Sadrists, led by populist Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, which thus far has 72 seats (these numbers may change). Taqadom obtained solely six seats within the 2018 elections. If Halbousi can unite along with his Sunni political rival, Khamis al-Kanjar, chief of the Azem (Arab Venture) Get together, which obtained 12 seats, then Iraq’s Sunnis may management as many as 50 of the 329 seats.
Right here is the newest tally (topic to vary):
- 72 -Sadrist Coalition
- 37 -Taqadom
- 35 -State of Regulation (Get together of former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki)
- 33 -Kurdistan Democratic Get together of Masoud Barzani
- 21 -Fatah – ‘Conquest Alliance’ linked to Widespread Mobilization Items with hyperlinks to Iran
- 16 Patriotic Union of Kurdistan
- 12 Azem – Khanjar
- 37 Independents – Combine
- 66 Different smaller events
What it means. The Iraq Excessive Electoral Fee will certify the ultimate outcomes inside two weeks. Then the politicking begins. High posts are assigned inside communities. The important thing posts are president (reserved for a Kurd, at the moment held by Barham Salih), prime minister (reserved for a Shiite, at the moment held by Mustafa al-Kadhimi), and speaker of the parliament (reserved for an Arab Sunni, held by Halbousi). Halbousi’s robust efficiency has him well-placed to return as speaker.
Learn extra: Shelly Kittleson gives unmatched reporting from Iraq on the social, political, and safety tendencies in Iraq’s Sunni communities, together with this piece on the Halbousi-Kanjar campaign. Additionally take a look at the newest from Iraq by Mustafa Sadoun and Ali Mamouri, and our podcast this week with Ken Pollack of the American Enterprise Institute.
From our regional correspondents:
1. Press freedom beneath risk in Tunisia
Tunisia’s journalist union is warning that press freedoms are eroding within the turbulent North African nation amid a heightened marketing campaign of arrests and prosecutions. Earlier this month, the Tunisian judiciary sentenced 4 individuals to jail, together with a feminine journalist, on spying fees. Mohamed Ali Ltifi explains that a lot of the focused journalists and activists are against Tunisian President Kais Saied, who in July sacked the Cupboard and suspended parliament in a transfer his critics referred to as a coup. However because the Nationwide Syndicate of Tunisian Journalists has documented, press freedom was on the decline properly earlier than Saied’s announcement. In what the journalists’ union mentioned was a three-year excessive, greater than 200 Tunisian journalists have been attacked from Could 2020 to April 2021.
2. Sisi backs Saied’s seizure of energy
In a telephone name final week, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi informed Saied that Saied’s current actions, together with suspending Parliament, “will result in stability.” Enhada, Tunisia’s largest political celebration, is taken into account an ideological offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is banned in Egypt. Our correspondent in Egypt notes that Egypt was the primary nation impressed by Tunisia’s Arab Spring rebellion in 2011, and “now Tunisia appears to be studying a lesson from Egypt in combating political Islam.”
3. Palestinian online game sparks controversy
A preferred new online game that lets customers play as a Palestinian fighter from the Gaza Strip has angered some Israelis who say the sport encourages the killing of Jews. Following a request from Israel’s justice minister, YouTube made the sport unavailable in Israel. The makers of “Fursan al-Aqsa: The Knights of the Al-Aqsa Mosque,” level out that the on-screen fighter solely assaults Israeli navy positions, not civilians. Mai Abu Hasaneen spoke with the game’s creator, Nidal Nijm, a 37-year-old Brazilian of Palestinian origin. Nijm mentioned he hopes the sport can fight a standard online game cliche that usually portrays Arabs and Muslims as terrorists.
4. Will Syria’s opposition forces merge in Idlib?
Hypothesis is heating up in Syrian opposition media retailers that the Turkey-backed Syrian Nationwide Military (SNA) will merge with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the US-designated terrorist group that controls Syria’s northwestern province of Idlib. Final month, the commander of the SNA-affiliated Sultan Suleiman Shah Division mentioned he was prepared to succeed in an understanding with the highly effective jihadist group. An HTS chief, in the meantime, informed Sultan al-Kanj that his group “is getting closer to the SNA factions, and there’s high-level coordination between the 2 events in all navy and safety fields.” Regardless of the obvious thaw, an SNA chief in Idlib cautioned that any potential merger will take time.
5. Syrian opposition chief visits DC, warns towards US withdrawal
Salem al-Meslet, president of the Syrian Nationwide Coalition opposition group, was in Washington final week. During an interview with Elizabeth Hagedorn, Meslet mentioned that current Biden administration sanctions on hardline SNA faction Ahrar al-Shariqa have “created a mannequin for different teams to remain in line” and mentioned his coalition helps any effort to analyze potential human rights violations. He additionally warned {that a} pullout of US troops from Syria would allow the Syrian authorities and its backers, saying a “withdrawal from Syria right now or within the close to future would imply we’re again to sq. one.”
One Cool Factor: Egypt’s award-winning synagogue restoration
Egypt is being praised for its current restoration of the Eliyahu Hanavi Synagogue within the Egyptian metropolis of Alexandria. Engineering Information-File, a US-based development journal, lately gave the North African nation its prime renovation award to commend a three-year-long restoration of Egypt’s oldest synagogue. The 2-story Eliyahu Hanavi Synagogue, which reopened to the general public in January 2020, is seen as a degree of delight amongst a tiny Egyptian Jewish group nearing extinction. George Mikhail reports on how Egypt is utilizing the newly renovated synagogue and different Jewish websites to advertise tourism.
What We’re Studying: Tunisia’s shaky financial future
Tunisia’s financial outlook “stays extremely unsure,” the World Financial institution says. The financial institution attributes the sluggish financial system and mounting public debt to each the coronavirus pandemic’s escalation in mid-2021 and up to date political occasions. The unstable state of affairs has drawn comparisons to Lebanon, the place political gridlock contributed to the nation’s financial collapse. Learn the World Financial institution’s latest outlook for Tunisia here.
What We’re Listening To: How Israel turned a cyber chief
Ben Caspit interviews Eviatar Matania, a professor at Tel Aviv College who helped develop Israel’s cyber capabilities. “Israel is an actual participant, not simply per capita, however in absolute numbers,” Matania says. Some figures to drive dwelling his level: Israel attracts over 30 % of world cyber investments, and an estimated one-third of all unicorn startups belong to Israelis. For extra on what makes Israel a cyber chief, listen to Caspit’s podcast here.
