CAIRO — In an interview with Bloomberg television on Sept. 8, Egyptian International Minister Sameh Shoukry stated Egypt is dedicated to talks on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) disaster and needs to keep away from any army battle.
In the meantime, Egypt’s Minister of Water Assets and Irrigation Mohamed Abdel Aty told Al-Jazeera on Sept. 6 about “diplomatic actions relating to the GERD.” He defined that “these actions can’t be introduced until they’re fruitful.” He didn’t present any additional particulars about their nature.
Following a five-month stalemate for the reason that last round of negotiations between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia in Kinshasa underneath the auspices of the African Union (AU) on April 6, Egypt referred to as on the UN Safety Council to look into the case. On July 8, the world physique beneficial the resumption of negotiations underneath the AU.
On July 19, Ethiopia introduced the completion of the second filling of the dam’s reservoir with out an settlement with its downstream neighbors Egypt and Sudan, which escalated tensions between the three Nile Basin international locations.
On this context, Rakha Hassan, member of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs, advised Al-Monitor, “Because the army possibility is unlikely for Egypt, negotiations stay the one doable plan of action, alongside political strain and gentle energy, particularly with Germany and Italy, whose corporations function within the GERD, along with the African international locations that again Ethiopia.”
On whether or not a brand new spherical of AU-negotiations would fail, Hassan stated, “Leaping to conclusions will not be acknowledged in diplomacy.”
On Aug. 26, regional media outlets cited nameless Sudanese sources as saying that Tunisia intends to submit a revised draft decision on the GERD to the Safety Council, calling on Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia to renew talks to achieve a binding settlement on filling and working the dam. Tunisia had submitted a draft resolution in July, calling on Addis Ababa to halt its unilateral strikes and return to the negotiations to achieve an settlement inside six months.
Hassan believes the brand new Tunisian draft decision will not be an answer as a result of the council won’t tackle the GERD disaster until the AU informs it that it has exhausted all means and failed to achieve an settlement.
Hassan stated that resorting to worldwide arbitration is the final resort as a result of the disputing international locations will probably be compelled to simply accept the result of this arbitration, no matter it might be. Due to this fact, the technique of negotiations and mediation should be exhausted first, he famous. “Failure to achieve a outcome within the negotiations will not be the tip of it. We should proceed to try to exploit Egypt’s pursuits with different countries to achieve an answer.
Egypt has lately been reaching out to a number of international locations within the area as a part of efforts to mobilize help for its place within the disaster. On Sept.13, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett discussed the GERD file. Following the assembly, Sisi stated he sensed a typical understanding between the 2 sides.
On Sept. 10, Egyptian assistant International Minister for European Affairs Badr Abdel-Aty and Director-Basic of Political Affairs on the Italian International Ministry Pasquale Ferrara addressed the GERD issue in the course of the talks in Cairo.
In the meantime, Shoukry met together with his Burundian counterpart, Albert Shinjiro, in Cairo on Sept. 7. The 2 officers discussed the GERD issue, with Shinjiro expressing his nation’s help for Egypt.
Mostafa Kamel el-Sayed, professor of political science at Cairo College, doesn’t imagine there’s a third possibility for Egypt apart from army intervention or negotiations, apart from counting on itself to maximise its profit from the Nile waters.
Chatting with Al-Monitor, Sayed talked about the government’s plan to rationalize water use, line canals, reuse wastewater after refining it and growing cooperation with Nile Basin international locations, particularly the White Nile countries, to learn from the elevated water flowing into Egypt from there.
He added, “Prior to now days, the media circulated information about Tunisia’s willingness to submit a brand new draft decision to the Safety Council relating to the GERD. However the council’s intervention within the disaster is at present unlikely as a result of the current high level of flooding in Egypt makes the council’s intervention not pressing, provided that the dam will not be at present a supply of hurt.”
Sayed stated, “The present weak spot of the Ethiopian authorities resulting from inside armed conflicts might rekindle hopes for a change within the Ethiopian place on the GERD disaster throughout negotiations underneath the auspices of the AU, and make it extra keen to simply accept a consensual answer between the three events.”
Sudan and Egypt, which undergo from water shortage, concern the GERD will have an effect on their shares of the Nile water, whereas Ethiopia considers the dam an existential mission for the event of its nation by producing electrical energy.
Heba al-Bashbeshi, researcher on the Institute of African Research at Cairo College, advised Al-Monitor the AU will play a superb function in resolving the GERD disaster within the coming interval, particularly for the reason that Democratic Republic of the Congo, the present AU chair, stated earlier than that it’s in search of to develop a street map to get out of the disaster.
On Sept. 9, Ethiopian Minister of Water and Irrigation Seleshi Bekele introduced his nation intends to generate electricity from the generators of the GERD by the Ethiopian New 12 months, which falls on Sept. 11.
He stated in an announcement, “Ethiopia is at present unstable; the destiny of its authorities is unknown, and these circumstances should be taken into consideration.”
“Perhaps a brand new settlement will probably be made or the AU might grow to be a celebration to the method of filling and working the dam; nobody is aware of,” he added.
Al-Monitor tried to contact a member of the Egyptian negotiating committee and a spokesperson for the Ministry of Irrigation for touch upon the destiny of negotiations, however there was no reply.
