Erdogan: Assault on Turkish convoy breaks ‘the camel’s again’
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that rocket assault on a Turkish convoy in Syria that killed two Turkish particular forces personnel has “broken the camel’s back,” including, “We’re decided to eradicate threats arising from there both with the forces energetic in these areas or with our personal means.”
Erdogan could also be able to launch one other army assault on Kurdish-administered areas of Syria. Or he could also be sending a flare to US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin that one thing extra must be completed to handle the Syria disaster on Turkey’s phrases.
Turkey’s president is boxed in by its “limitless conflict” and occupation of Syria, the financial burden of internet hosting 3.6 million Syrian refugees and variations with Biden and Putin on subsequent steps in Syria.
Two years in the past this month, with a inexperienced gentle from then-US President Donald Trump, Erdogan launched “Operation Peace Spring,” a army assault on Kurdish-held cities in northeast Syria on the Turkish border, towards what he labels terrorism from Syrian Kurdish teams there and to create a security zone to handle the flood of Syrian refugees into Syria.
Erdogan then reached a deal with Putin that introduced in Syrian army forces to adjoining areas and restricted Turkey’s occupation to 2 small cities, Inform Abyad and Ras al-Ain.
The Russian deal, nevertheless, promised that every one the weather of the Kurdish Folks’s Safety Items (YPG) and their arms “will likely be eliminated” from adjoining areas, however that hasn’t occurred.
Turkey considers the YPG the Syrian department of the Kurdistan Employees Celebration (PKK), which each america and Turkey have designated a terrorist group. Erdogan’s public statements this week have linked the PKK and the YPG not simply to terrorism towards Turkey but additionally to the drug commerce in Europe.
Putin has tried to dealer a deal among the many Syrian authorities, the Syrian Kurds and Turkey, however the items haven’t come collectively, partially due to the dangerous blood amongst all events. Another excuse is america, which maintains 900 troops in Syria and a partnership with the Syrian Democratic Forces, which is made up primarily of the YPG and with whom america has labored to fight the Islamic State in Syria.
Message to Putin: Let’s make a deal
Erdogan truly faces two fronts in Syria: the areas Turkey occupies through Syrian proxy forces within the Kurdish northeast, and its safety position in Idlib within the northwest, which is primarily managed by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a previously al-Qaeda-linked jihadi group designated as a terrorist group by each america and the UN Safety Council.
Putin has pressured Erdogan to excise the terrorist teams from Idlib and roughly step apart and permit Russian-backed Syrian forces to take out HTS and the opposite armed teams and reopen two key highways (the M4 and M5) that cross by means of there.
Erdogan and Putin met in Sochi on Sept. 29, however the readouts didn’t sign a deal on both Idlib or Inform Rifaat and Manbij, the Kurdish cities within the northeast in Erdogan’s websites following the Nov. 10 assault.
“The Inform Rifaat card seems to be a software for Erdogan to protect the established order in Idlib,” writes Fehim Tastekin. “But such maneuvering can not fend off Idlib-related pressures for good. Russia has proven no willingness to commerce off Inform Rifaat and Manbij for Idlib and is unlikely to approve a brand new Turkish offensive.”
From Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s perspective, management of Inform Rifaat and even perhaps Manbij by Turkish-backed Syrian armed teams can be an unwelcome enhance for the opposition and a brand new risk to Assad’s stability.
Putin, as Assad’s predominant backer, due to this fact prefers to carry Erdogan again. America additionally needs to keep away from a Turkish assault on areas managed by its Syrian Kurdish companions. Erdogan and Putin may additionally accept some give and get in each Idlib and Inform Rifaat.
“Turkey may get a inexperienced gentle for a restricted operation in Inform Rifaat that will not influence the management on the bottom in return for its withdrawal from the M-4 route in Idlib,” provides Tastekin. “Given the significance Damascus and its allies place on Inform Rifaat, any backstepping there would most likely require a serious step by Erdogan that will considerably alter the scenario on the bottom.”
And to Biden: a ultimate take a look at on the F-16? Perhaps not
The White Home extension of the state of emergency in Syria on Oct. 7 positioned Turkey squarely on the alternative facet of US pursuits in northeast Syria, stating that Turkey’s army operations there “undermine the marketing campaign to defeat the Islamic State, … endangers civilians, and additional threatens to undermine the peace, safety, and stability within the area, and continues to pose an uncommon and extraordinary risk to the nationwide safety and international coverage of america.”
Though US State Division spokesperson Ned Worth condemned the Oct. 10 assault that killed the 2 Turkish troopers and referred to as on all events to respect cease-fire traces, Turkish Overseas Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu lashed out, calling Worth’s statements insincere and pointing to Washington’s position in supplying arms to Syrian Kurdish militants. “You’re offering them with arms after which making a press release for present solely. The insincerity is clear there,” quotes Diego Cupolo.
Worth tried to decrease the temperature on Oct. 14, saying that “Turkey, in fact, is an important NATO ally. We have now shared pursuits in any variety of areas. That features countering terrorism, ending the battle in Syria, and deterring malign affect within the area.”
In the meantime, regardless of the friction in US-Turkey relations and sanctions ensuing from Turkey’s buy of the S-400 Russian missile protection system, Ankara has requested F-16 fighter planes from america.
Erdogan “sees the request as one final take a look at of confidence with the Biden administration, stressing that the administration might persuade Congress to approve the sale if it actually cares to maintain Turkey from gravitating to Russia,” Metin Gurcan writes. “The request is seen as a form of a junction, with Ankara bracing for a brand new technique, relying on Washington’s response.”
“Many in Turkey now wonder if Ankara made the F-16 request solely to have it rejected, in a calculated transfer to put the bottom for warplane negotiations with Russia,” Gurcan provides.
Though “Erdogan has even much less room to maneuver vis-à-vis Biden than he has with Putin,” Cengiz Candar observes, Erdogan could but pull again from the breaking level in US-Turkey ties, as he wants america as a counterweight to Putin.
We reported two weeks in the past that the Syria quagmire has produced “a form of fragile stalemate” amongst Turkey, Russia and america “that might break down at any time…Erdogan can’t ditch america fully, as he and Putin aren’t on the identical web page in Syria and Ukraine. He wants a minimum of the phantasm of an choice in coping with Putin to remain within the recreation. That is additionally a trump card for the US. The frustration for the Turkish president is that his foreign policy is personal and summit level. He and Putin meet and discuss typically. Erdogan and Biden, in distinction, don’t even attempt to faux it today.”
