| Crown Prince Muhammad bin Zayid, President Trump, Prime Minister Netanyahu |
In a shock announcement final week, President Donald Trump revealed the profitable conclusion of an settlement between the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the State of Israel that may result in the institution of full diplomatic relations.
My first response: it is a good factor. The Gulf Arabs are coming to the conclusion that Israel doesn’t pose a menace to them until they pose a menace to Israel. There isn’t a motive for the Gulf states to threaten Israel aside from the parable of Arab – and in some circumstances Muslim – solidarity in opposition to the self-described Jewish state “for the sake of the Palestinians.”
Having lived and served in quite a lot of these international locations for a few years, I assess that they’re uninterested in the Palestinian “trigger” and self-victimization, the Palestinian Authority, Lebanese Hizballah, and Hamas, to call just a few. They’re afraid of Sunni extremism (al-Qa’idah, ISIS, and so forth.), sure, however far more cautious of Iranian help for Shi’a terrorist teams – the aforementioned Hizballah, in addition to Iraqi Shi’a militias.
These Gulf Arab nations don’t reside in worry of Israel. For probably the most half, Israel tries to conduct itself as a member of the worldwide group when permitted to by an overwhelmingly anti-Israel United Nations and European Union. In personal, many senior and influential leaders of those Arab international locations, these I’d name “the enlightened” ones, really wish to be extra like Israel.
The Arabs solely have to have a look at Israel’s advances in science, know-how, medication, and sure, weapons. Israel enjoys a qualitative edge in just about each class when in comparison with the Arab international locations. Many ask why that is the case, and the drained clarification that it is just the help of america for Israel that enables them to be so profitable is dropping its voice.
The United Arab Emirates has been blessed with a many years of enlightened management. Even through the presidency of Shaykh Zayid bin Sultan Al Nahayyan, he allowed the subsequent era the leeway to attempt to change the Emirates into a contemporary society. One solely want take a look at Dubai after I served because the performing Protection Attache to the U.S. Embassy within the UAE in 1992, and after I visited two years in the past – evening and day.
As a part of my duties, I dealt intently with the UAE Ministry of Protection and its armed forces. I discovered them to be well-educated, well-motivated, and for probably the most half nonpolitical. That prolonged to their views of Israel and the Palestinians. Most have been extra involved with the self-styled Shi’a hegemon just some miles throughout the Gulf – Iran. You’ll be aware I’m not calling it the Persian Gulf – that is one of many issues about which the Gulf Arabs can get a bit testy.
On the embassy, positioned within the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, I used to be the performing chief of the Protection Attache Workplace, the USDAO. One other part within the embassy was the safety help workplace (SAO), now known as the Workplace of Protection Partnership. These are the U.S. army officers who’re there principally to promote U.S. weapons and coaching to the UAE. Nice officers and at time rivals – we jokingly referred to one another because the “spooks” (me) and “retailers of dying (them).”
Whereas there actually was cooperation and coordination, at occasions we have been performing at cross functions. My position was to watch and report on UAE army capabilities, and to behave as an intelligence liaison with the UAE Army Intelligence Directorate. Remember that army attaches worldwide are declared intelligence officers, work for his or her nation’s army intelligence service – in my case, the U.S. Protection Intelligence Company – and are accredited to the host nation’s chief of army intelligence.
Once I arrived in Abu Dhabi, I made an workplace name on the Director of Army Intelligence, who later launched me to Minister of Protection (since 1971 and nonetheless immediately) Shaykh Muhammad bin Rashid Al Maktum. If that identify sounds acquainted, it ought to – he’s now Vice President of the UAE, Prime Minister of the UAE, Emir of Dubai, and as I stated, Minister of Protection of the nation.
“Shaykh Mo,” as he requested us to name him, and I struck up a dialog in regards to the Gulf Warfare and my service as Central Command chief Basic H. Norman Schwarzkopf’s interpreter. I believe since we have been pretty shut in age, he requested if I’d give him my evaluation and opinion on the way forward for the UAE’s armed forces. I knew he had been in slightly heated discussions with representatives of the embassy’s SAO over weapons purchases. At the moment, the U.S. protection business was pushing gross sales of the M-1 Abrams predominant battle tank and the Patriot air protection missile system.
Maybe that is after I ought to have consulted with the safety help individuals….
I advised the shaykh/minister that for my part, and harassed that this was simply my opinion, not the place of the U.S. Division of Protection, that he ought to sample the UAE armed forces on the Israel Protection Forces (IDF), with one exception – the Israeli Military. Did I simply be aware that the U.S. protection business was pushing the M-1 tank?
I defined that as I noticed it, the UAE’s major adversary was, and more likely to be for the foreseeable future, Iran, or no less than so long as it remained the Islamic Republic of Iran. Until Iran was to develop an enormous amphibious assault functionality, there was little likelihood of a land invasion – particular operations raids on oil and fuel amenities, possibly, however a serious floor assault? Unlikely.
Iran’s main threats would come from the air, the ocean (both the Gulf or Gulf of Oman), or terrorism. On level, in 2019 there was a terrorist assault on 4 ships in Emirati territorial waters within the Gulf of Oman off the coast of the Emirate of al-Fujayrah.
What the UAE wanted, at the moment and now, was a world-class air pressure, an efficient air protection/anti-missile system, and a regionally aggressive navy/coast guard. Floor forces like a nationwide guard ought to suffice to face the minimal floor menace, they usually wanted to develop a severe counter-terrorism effort in opposition to Iran.
What the UAE didn’t (and doesn’t) want is an armor-heavy military that ought to by no means deploy to combat an expeditionary warfare, or need to defend the territory of the UAE. They’ve strayed a bit from the place they need to be in Yemen, and I believe they’ve realized that deploying their floor forces will not be clever.
That stated, shopping for M-1 tanks? Not an issue, however not a precedence. Buying Patriot missiles? Sure, a excessive precedence. F-16s? Completely the best precedence – get the perfect cash can purchase, and the UAE can afford it. I’m glad to see that the UAE Air Power now flies among the most superior F-16s on the earth.
It was a wide-ranging dialog – the shaykh was well-informed and cognizant of the present scenario. I believe my feedback have been merely confirmatory to his personal pondering. Nevertheless, studies of my dialog with the shaykh reached the ears of the SAO individuals on the embassy. I used to be instantly known as to satisfy with the chief of the SAO, a soon-retiring U.S. Military colonel clearly in search of a place at Raytheon (Patriot missiles) or Basic Dynamics (M-1 Abrams tanks). Each are nice weapon programs, however have been they proper for the UAE?
The safety help operate of the Division of Protection has all the time been suspect to us international space officers and intelligence specialists. Senior officers recommending (“promoting”) sure weapons programs to international locations the place they’ve served after which retire and find yourself working for corporations named Raytheon, Boeing, Basic Dynamics, and so forth. It simply sounds too handy.
I advised the shaykh what I assumed he wanted to know, not what the protection business contractors (or the SAO officers) wished to promote him. I used to be instantly challenged by the Military colonel who was chief of the embassy safety help workplace. All in, he was a superb Military officer simply doing his job, however peddling pointless arms to an ally didn’t appear to be kosher (pun supposed) to me. Since we labored for various masters, we parted on slightly icy phrases.
As I stated, I’m happy to see that the UAE has developed a really succesful air pressure – if not world-class air pressure, it’s actually among the many finest within the Center East. They’ve additionally developed a superb naval and coast guard functionality. I’m upset that they’ve tried to make use of their army as an expeditionary pressure in Yemen and Libya. I discover it laborious to imagine that the Shaykh Muhammad of 1992 is permitting his forces for use this manner in 2020. The pressure construction we had talked about in 1992 was by no means meant to function on this method.
Nonetheless, the UAE has been a key American ally for many years. Using the al-Dhafra air base exterior Abu Dhabi has been an integral a part of American air operations within the U.S.-led coalition in opposition to the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS).
I typically marvel why now we have positioned U.S. Central Command (Ahead) on the al-‘Udayd (Al Udeid) air base in Qatar. Qatar is an ally, sure, however far more aligned with Turkey and its help for Islamist teams in Syria. Let’s not neglect that the anti-American satellite tv for pc information community Al Jazeera is predicated in Doha, Qatar. For these of you who watch Al Jazeera English, the Arabic language community and the English language networks are completely completely different – the Arabic-language broadcast is exponentially far more anti-American and anti-western than the English language content material. I digress.
What’s driving the change within the UAE that they’re keen to normalize relations with Israel? Simple – Iran. I suppose we owe a debit of gratitude to former President Barack Obama and his terminally ineffectual Secretary of State John Kerry.
If Obama and Kerry had not spent a lot time and treasure on the ill-advised Iran nuclear deal, the so-called Joint Complete Plan of Motion (JCPOA), international locations just like the UAE and Saudi Arabia wouldn’t be so anxious a couple of potential nuclear-armed Iran. (See my article from earlier this month, Saudi Arabia and China nuclear cooperation – is Riyadh seeking nukes?) The prospect of a Joe Biden-Kamala Harris administration and the likelihood of one other ill-advised American effort to befriend the world’s main sponsor of terrorism is of nice concern to our Gulf Arab allies.
I hope america is ready to work with the leaders of Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait to observe within the UAE’s footsteps. Saudi Arabia, who additionally cooperates with Israel silently, could take a bit longer.
The Israelis are sensible to attempt to work with the Sunni Arabs. They share a typical menace: the Islamic Republic of Iran and its Shi’a syndicate in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
