Turkey has threatened to launch a military operation in opposition to the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which has not too long ago stepped up its assaults within the areas managed by the Turkish-backed factions in north Syria.
On Oct. 7, a rocket assault focused a Turkish army convoy within the space, killing a Turkish soldier.
The Turkish authorities introduced Oct. 10 that two of its troopers had been killed in an analogous assault close to Marea within the countryside of Aleppo.
In a Cabinet meeting on Oct. 11, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated the newest assault that focused Turkish forces in northern Syria was “the ultimate straw” and the assaults in opposition to these areas are unacceptable.
He careworn that Ankara would remove threats originating from northern Syria both by itself or with the help of energetic forces there.
In the meantime, Turkish Overseas Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu stated at a press convention in Ankara on Oct. 13 that Russia and america bear duty for the assaults that recently targeted Turkish forces in Syria.
Turkish Protection Minister Hulusi Akar stated through the opening ceremony of the Nationwide Protection College for the 2021-2022 tutorial yr on Oct. 14 that his nation will take the required measures to guard and protect its rights and pursuits within the acceptable place and time.
In the meantime, the village of Qarqamish within the Turkish state of Gaziantep was targeted with mortar shells on Oct. 12, with Turkish authorities accusing the SDF of being behind the assault.
On Oct. 13, the Turkish military renewed its shelling of SDF sites within the jap Euphrates area and the northern countryside of Aleppo. Turkish reconnaissance plane and drones hovered over many areas.
On this context, Yussuf Khaled Hammoud, official spokesman for the Syrian Nationwide Military affiliated with the Turkish-backed Free Syrian Military, spoke to Al-Monitor in regards to the ongoing preparations for a brand new battle in opposition to the SDF in response to the virtually day by day bombing of the Syrian Nationwide Military’s areas of management, which precipitated the deaths of civilians and troopers.
“The opposition factions are totally ready for any upcoming army motion, and we have now the capabilities to attain a brand new victory, particularly contemplating that this battle will happen with the participation of Turkish forces, as was the case with operations Euphrates Defend, Olive Department and Peace Spring. An operations room has been established for an organized army command in a bid to extend the power to reply to any army improvement. Everybody is aware of that the SDF will be unable to confront our forces if Russia and the US abandon them,” he stated.
On Oct. 15, Reuters quoted Turkish officers as saying that Recep Tayyip Erdogan will focus on launching a new military operation in opposition to the SDF along with his US counterpart, Joe Biden, throughout their assembly on the G-20 summit, which can be held on the finish of this month.
One other Turkish official was quoted as saying that Russia controls the areas from which the current assaults in opposition to Turkish forces and territory originated, which is able to immediate Erdogan to carry talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin as effectively.
In case diplomacy fails, the official stated, an operation in opposition to the Folks’s Safety Models (YPG) in north Syria appears “unavoidable.”
For his half, Wael Olwan, a researcher on the Istanbul-based Jusoor Heart for Research, advised Al-Monitor, “The Turkish statements replicate Turkey’s seriousness in ending any provocations on its southern borders, and this raises the chances of a army resolution. However discipline and political indicators point out that Turkey is ready for Russia and the US to expire of choices relating to placing an finish to those threats. Solely then would Turkey transfer [into the region] in cooperation with regional and worldwide events, even when restricted.”
He added, “What’s extra, army motion will not be the one possibility for Turkey to safe the areas it controls [in Syria through the Syrian opposition factions]. Russia may suggest options that Turkey might settle for, as occurred in Afrin when Turkish forces entered the city after the Russians [withdrew] and deserted the SDF.”
Olwan continued, “Additionally, because the involved events appear to wish to keep away from clashes, they may seemingly resort to compromises, which can embody the alternate of some geographical areas. This implies Turkey might abandon components of Idlib in return for being allowed to advance into areas managed by the SDF.”
“However within the occasion of a army assault, Turkey will participate alongside the Syrian nationwide military, since Ankara will not be able to deploy extra forces on the bottom to keep away from casualties in its ranks and opposition from the Turkish public,” he added.
Amidst the Turkish statements a couple of potential army operation in northeastern Syria, the SDF fear their allies will abandon them, simply as occurred throughout earlier Turkish operations in opposition to them.
Sihanouk Depod, a member of the Presidential Council of the Syrian Democratic Council, the SDF’s political wing, stated in a press assertion on Oct. 16 that they will count on something from Turkey.
Riad Darar, co-chair of the Syrian Democratic Council, had stated in statements that experiences in regards to the current assaults focusing on Turkish areas of management and Turkish troopers is “a Turkish sport to realize positions. Turkey won’t dare management new areas in Syria.”
This comes because the SDF despatched logistic reinforcements and deployed dozens of fighters to its positions within the countryside of Raqqa and Hasakah within the wake of Turkish threats to launch a army marketing campaign.
Fayez al-Asmar, a army analyst and strategic skilled, advised Al-Monitor, “Turkey used the assaults on its forces as a possibility to threaten with army motion in opposition to the SDF-controlled areas, particularly contemplating that there are earlier agreements that enable it to penetrate greater than 30 kilometers to confront any sort of terrorism that makes use of Syrian territory in opposition to it.”
He added, “Though Turkey has been redeploying its forces and sending reinforcements within the space, Ankara has not specified a date for the brand new army operation, nor did it reveal the focused areas. There are three areas that might function Turkey’s subsequent goal: the realm between Ras al-Ain to Qamishli, or Inform Rifaat and its environs, or Ain al-Arab and Manbij. However the precedence appears to be town of Inform Rifaat, north of Aleppo, [from where] assaults have been carried out in opposition to Afrin and the Euphrates Defend areas. This space is totally underneath the management of Russia, and the latter won’t settle for the entry of Turkish forces due to its strategic location close to Aleppo.”
