Turkey’s economic system is perhaps going via its darkest days in a long time, but overseas coverage nonetheless permits Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to attain factors.
Excessive-level visits by the Spanish Prime Minister and the United Arab Emirates Crown Prince to Turkey could have thrown a lifeline to Erdogan’s standing at a time when Turkish lira has tumbled to file low ranges, unleashing outrage from giant segments of the society.
In its Nov. 19 version, Monetary Instances reported that the Turkish lira sank to an all-time low, with some analysts describing the scenario as a foreign money disaster. “The foreign money has declined greater than 30 per cent this yr after traders misplaced religion within the authorities’ ability to manage the economic system within the face of inflation that accelerated to virtually 20 per cent in October,” the authoritative British paper on monetary and financial points asserted.
Turkey’s financial woes are the direct outcomes of the unorthodox views of its strongman. Thus, it’s a man-made disaster. The person is none aside from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The timeline of Turkey’s foreign money meltdown and the Turkish lira’s annual depreciation in opposition to the US greenback over the previous years inform it unequivocally. Turkish lira has shed almost 7% in 2017, 28% in 2018, 11%, in 2019, 20% in 2020 and 42% in 2021 so far in opposition to the buck.
The polls point out dwindling assist for the president, jeopardizing his reelection and political survival. Maybe for the primary time, the polls recommend that the opposition bloc and the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Celebration (HDP) might have an opportunity in opposition to Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Growth Celebration and their de facto nationalist allies. The opposition is now pushing more durable for early elections that are scheduled for June 2023. Erdogan has categorically dominated out the potential for early elections.
Lower than every week after Turkey’s central financial institution minimize interest rates by 100 basis points to 15% on Nov. 18, Turkish lira tumbled to as little as 13 to the greenback on Nov. 23. The plunge, which was the largest drop since August 2018, got here after Erdogan declared that the nation was waging “an economic war of independence,” and with “the assistance of God” would emerge victorious.
To wage a “struggle” in opposition to invisible enemies like overseas trade charges could sound like Don Quixote preventing in opposition to the windmills. Nonetheless Erdogan has causes, particularly in overseas coverage, to consider catastrophe will not be imminent, opposite to his opponents’ opinions.
Noteworthy on this respect is Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s go to to Ankara every week in the past. Throughout their assembly, Sanchez and Erdogan “sealed a new ‘comprehensive association‘ between Spain and Turkey, regardless of acknowledging that ‘legit’ variations stay of their factors of view on numerous questions,” the Spanish information company EFE reported.
Spain’s socialist prime minister even went so far as to explain Turkey beneath Erdogan’s autocratic rule as “an indispensable ally for the European Union. … Thus Spain helps the European view of Turkey, and we encourage our Turkish pals to persevere within the effort to maneuver nearer progressively,” he mentioned, utilizing supportive language exceptional from any EU chief in latest occasions.
The explanations weren’t tough to seek out when learn along with Erdogan’s phrases. He mentioned Turkey hoped to extend protection cooperation with its NATO ally by buying a second plane provider and presumably a submarine from Spain.
“The primary plane provider was not a large-scale one. Now we have agreed on constructing a large scale [carrier], and maybe, we may even enter [cooperation] for a submarine,” Erdogan mentioned throughout the joint press convention. “There may be a lot we are able to do within the protection trade, together with armed and unarmed, unmanned aerial automobiles,” he added.
Turkey and Spain are unusual bedfellows on the Mediterranean. But their army cooperation will counterbalance the same partnership between Greece and France. Latest lavish offers between the 2 might tip the balance of naval power in favor of Greece within the Japanese Mediterranean. “Complete affiliation” between Ankara and Madrid will be thought-about Turkey’s response to Greece and Spain’s response to France.
On one other entrance, Erdogan assumed the chair of the Organization of Turkic States on Nov. 12, a title that he’ll maintain for not less than a yr. The worldwide physique comprising a inhabitants of just about 170 million brings collectively Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan as full members of the group. Turkmenistan and Hungary maintain observer standing.
One other essential overseas coverage situation that gives sure leverage for Erdogan is Libya. Earlier than the tip of November, eight lawmakers from the Home of Representatives in Tobruk are expected to travel to Turkey, together with influential folks near Aguila Saleh and Khalifa Hifter, whose seize of Tripoli was prevented by Turkish-backed teams.
Furthermore, Ankara nonetheless has very shut financial, political, and army ties with Libya’s Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibeh, who is taken into account a frontrunner within the nation’s upcoming presidential elections on Dec. 24.
Factions that had been preventing the Turkish-backed teams in Libya are actually eager to achieve out to Ankara. Hifter’s folks have been actively working to reestablish strains of communication with Turkey. There are rumors that Hifter’s sons have just lately traveled to Turkey a number of occasions.
UAE Crown Prince Muhammed bin Zayed’s go to to Ankara on Nov. 24 might additionally spell the tip of the animosity between Ankara and Abu Dhabi, significantly in Libya, the place two capitals are supporting rival factions.
Turkey used to accuse the UAE of perpetrating the botched coup in 2016. The UAE, in flip, was in opposition to Turkey virtually on each entrance, from the Gulf to North Africa to Japanese Mediterranean.
A very powerful results of the go to may very well be the big UAE investments in Turkey. The Center East Eye reported that the Crown Prince informed Erdogan in a cellphone name earlier this yr that he was prepared to speculate as much as $100 billion in Turkey, citing a “well-placed supply.”
Turkey is in unhealthy form economically, and Erdogan appears to be crumbling politically. Nevertheless, it could nonetheless be too early to put in writing him off, due to overseas developments.
