Saif al-Islam Gaddafi and Khalifa Haftar are operating for the presidential elections scheduled for twenty-four December, and the controversy that adopted added nothing else to the very complicated scene in Libya, apart from fuelling the concern that these elections won’t be a means out of the deepening disaster on this nation, as a lot as it would probably be considered one of its new chapters.
Ready to know the remainder of the candidates and what is going to occur of their regard, in addition to the outcomes of the appeals that could be submitted by any of the candidates, won’t change any of the apprehension accompanying these elections.
This apprehension was expressed by multiple social gathering, Libyan and non-Libyan. I’ll point out right here what two former worldwide envoys to Libya stated. Tarek Mitri stated, “everybody needs elections in Libya or claims so, however compromises about power-sharing and holding elections alone don’t assure the unity of the nation and its peace, because it doesn’t exchange the unanimity of nationwide targets that forestall quotas, the settlement on a brand new social contract and the constructing of state establishments.” In the meantime, Ghassan Salameh says that “there isn’t any worse hurt to democracy than rejecting the election outcomes and attempting to undermine them with violence. Examples of this are Iraq and Ethiopia at the moment, and lots of nations earlier than them, whose losers rebelled in opposition to the rule of the poll field. Due to this fact, their nations had been torn aside in civil wars or slipped into particular person rule. Everyone seems to be a loser in a match that ends with the destruction of the stadium.”
The rationale for this pessimism isn’t solely the continued division within the Libyan political and safety establishments between the east and the west, but in addition the absence of a minimal political consensus between the conflicting Libyan events in preparation for going to the polls. There may be additionally the absence of a constitutional foundation for these elections legally, in addition to a lot of tough questions which can be nonetheless pending relating to these elections. A few of these questions had been expressed by Hanan Salah, a specialist in Libyan affairs at Human Rights Watch, when she requested, “can Libyan authorities guarantee an surroundings freed from coercion, discrimination and intimidation of voters, candidates, and political events? Since election guidelines may arbitrarily exclude potential voters or candidates, how can authorities make sure the vote is inclusive? Is there a powerful safety plan for polling stations? Is the judiciary in a position to deal promptly and pretty with elections-related disputes? Can election organisers guarantee impartial displays could have entry to polling locations, even in distant areas? Did the Excessive Nationwide Elections Fee prepare for an impartial, exterior audit of the voter register?” She answered all these questions by saying, “Given the state of affairs in Libya, this all appears questionable.”
READ: Will the Libyan elections lead to calm or chaos?
With the danger of holding presidential elections with no structure as a result of this is able to positively imply the institution of the rule of the person “chief” after a bitter rule on this means for 42 years with Colonel Gaddafi, what worries extra is the worldwide interplay with the Libyan disaster, as a result of it reveals not solely a pointy division between two camps that help one facet of Libya on the expense of the opposite. That is in mild of overseas forces and mercenaries who haven’t but left Libyan soil. It is usually a form of acceptance of coping with these conflicting entities between the east and west of the nation, solely as a result of they’re simply events that may be spoken with no matter their legitimacy or illustration, whereas some harbour a daunting conviction that Libya can solely be dominated with an iron fist and the management of 1 man.
Even the Paris convention, which was held lately and attended by the nations involved in a technique or one other with what is occurring in Libya, was not in a position to untie the knots of holding the elections or suspending them. It was content material with threatening these obstructing them, both folks or entities, by imposing sanctions on them although earlier sanctions didn’t show their effectiveness, together with what was determined by the US Home of Representatives underneath the Libya Stabilization Act.
One of the vital harmful issues that Libya may additionally face is that any questioning of the integrity of the elections or the rejection of their outcomes could lead, as soon as once more, to the emergence of a authorities within the east of the nation and one other within the west, after this duplication was eradicated with nice problem via the nationwide unity authorities headed by Abdel Hamid Al-Dabaiba. There are additionally fears of the return of the risk to cease the export of Libyan oil once more. If overseas forces and mercenaries determine to help this or that social gathering after the outcomes seem, issues could grow to be extra sophisticated, and we could even enter right into a violent civil battle with the presence of problematic candidates comparable to Gaddafi and Haftar. The assault that befell on a few of the headquarters of the Excessive Electoral Fee after the announcement of their candidates solely foreshadowed such a daunting chance, which is additional exacerbated by tribal and regional backgrounds and sensitivities.
Might suspending the elections be the answer? Nobody might be sure of this, however we do know that conducting the elections underneath the present circumstances is extraordinarily dangerous, particularly for the reason that time could be very brief to handle the issues dealing with its integrity. Amongst all of the hypotheses, the Libyans are holding their breath, in addition to the neighbouring nations and people who love them.
READ: Libya’s former interior minister to run for presidential election
This text first appeared in Arabic in Arabi21 on 17 November 2021
The views expressed on this article belong to the creator and don’t essentially mirror the editorial coverage of Center East Monitor.
