Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, got here collectively for the primary time in 18 months within the Russian Black Sea metropolis of Sochi Sept. 29 for talks that have been anticipated to concentrate on resurging tensions in Syria’s rebel-held province of Idlib.
The 2 leaders had final met on March 5, 2020, in Moscow to hammer out a cease-fire deal after a violent escalation in Idlib that claimed the lives of scores of Turkish troopers. Erdogan and Putin have had 26 face-to-face conferences since a extreme disaster in bilateral ties over Turkey’s downing of a Russian jet in November 2015.
In footage made accessible to the media, the 2 leaders appeared to get pleasure from a relaxed dialog forward of their assembly in Sochi, which, surprisingly, ended and not using a press convention.
Talking forward of the assembly, Erdogan mentioned, “I particularly imagine that it is going to be extremely helpful to proceed to additional strengthen the Turkey-Russia relations. Our joint steps regarding Syria are of nice significance. Peace over there is determined by Turkey-Russia relations.” He emphasised the significance of cooperation within the protection trade and signaled that Turkey would proceed to collaborate with Russia on the S-400 air protection programs, the acquisition of which has earned Ankara US sanctions. Putin, for his half, harassed the significance of financial ties with Turkey. Each leaders steered away from problematic matters of their statements to the press.
In contrast to earlier talks, Erdogan and Putin weren’t accompanied by respective delegations and an official Turkish interpreter through the assembly, which lasted about two and a half hours. Curiously, Protection Minister Hulusi Akar and Overseas Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu have been absent from Erdogan’s entourage in Sochi. Standing out in his delegation have been Turkey’s intelligence chief, Hakan Fidan, and two presidential aides, spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin and communication chief Fahrettin Altun.
Given the time spent with translation, the precise dialogue between Erdogan and Putin is unlikely to have lasted greater than an hour and 1 / 4, which seems too brief for his or her first face-to-face assembly in 18 months and the plentitude of thorny matters on the agenda, such because the anticipated withdrawal of Turkish forces and Turkish-backed teams to the north of the important thing M4 freeway in Syria, leaving management of the path to Damascus; the mutual institution of protected corridors or commerce crossings on both aspect of the highway; efforts to draft a brand new structure for Syria, to not point out different dossiers resembling Libya, the Japanese Mediterranean and the Black Sea; Turkey’s rising navy expertise cooperation with Ukraine; and vitality points together with the pricing of the fuel Turkey buys from Russia, which is up for overview in three months.
So what was the core goal of the assembly? To begin with, one has to notice that Turkish-Russian relations have turn out to be so personalised round Erdogan and Putin that any main situation has come to be mentioned between the 2. That Erdogan didn’t really feel the necessity to take his overseas minister to Sochi is the very best illustration of how the institutional framework of shaping and executing Turkish overseas coverage has collapsed and decision-making has concentrated within the presidential palace. What did the 2 leaders focus on? Did Erdogan make any guarantees to Putin and in return for what? Did they focus on their political prospects as effectively? We’ll by no means know that. And the Turkish state’s archives will know solely as a lot as Erdogan is prepared to share. This once more reveals that Turkish overseas coverage as we knew it’s now not, having been lowered to exterior relations geared toward guaranteeing the political survival of 1 particular person: Erdogan.
Because the period of the assembly allowed little time for detailed discussions on excellent issues, Erdogan and Putin are prone to have solely examined one another’s intentions, made some declarations of intent and brought up potential cooperation on mutually vital points, which, in Erdogan’s case, are extremely prone to be associated to his political fortunes at dwelling amid his slipping ballot numbers and rising opposition requires early elections.
New areas of cooperation might need come up in return for Russia serving to Turkey on plenty of points that Ankara has been more and more struggling to handle, together with Libya, northwest Syria, and the US navy presence in northeast Syria and its help for the Kurdish Folks’s Protection Models (YPG), an affiliate of the Kurdistan Employees Occasion from Turkey, which Ankara lists as a terrorist group. Talking to journalists on the flight again from Sochi, Erdogan did point out potential cooperation with Russia in placing new areas resembling house expertise, joint rocket launches to house from land and naval platforms, and joint manufacturing of submarines and different ships.
Commenting on Ankara’s controversial S-400 buy, Erdogan made remarks that would definitely trigger eyebrows to lift in Washington and different Western capitals. “The method on the S-400 situation is occurring,” he mentioned. “Stepping again is out of the query for us. We spoke about all this intimately and mentioned how we might take it to an additional stage.”
This writer finds it a powerful chance that the 2 leaders additionally mentioned basic rules on how they may keep their “bromance” down the highway. This might be a purpose why the assembly ended and not using a joint assertion or a press convention. Analysts now have to concentrate on upcoming developments on the bottom and the strikes Erdogan and Putin will make for clues about what was mentioned behind closed doorways.
Though the assembly is claimed to have resulted in an environment of calm content material, numerous ups and downs ought to be anticipated in bilateral ties within the coming interval, particularly in Syria. Russia is prone to conduct a navy offensive on Idlib, albeit a partial one. The operation won’t come instantly, pending the decision of technical points, however Russia seems bent on tightening its floor and aerial grip over Idlib.
On Ukraine and Crimea, two of probably the most contentious points between Turkey and Russia, the 2 sides are anticipated to keep up their positions in stability throughout the framework of mutual understanding. Nonetheless, Moscow would possibly retaliate towards Ankara’s stance on Crimea by deepening cooperation with the YPG in Syria.
As for Azerbaijan and its territorial battle with Armenia, Ankara and Moscow would favor to keep up the present regional stability. The Turkish-Russian joint statement mission in Nagorno-Karabakh, the scene of occasional low-intensity conflicts, stands out as the one problem-free space between the 2 international locations.
After the Sochi assembly, the way forward for Turkish-Russian ties seems more and more tied to the political way forward for Erdogan first after which that of Putin.
The reply to why Erdogan is eager on personalizing overseas coverage has two features. First, he desires to be the first interlocutor in Turkey’s overseas ties, particularly with heavyweights resembling Russia, america and Europe. All of Turkey’s overseas coverage choices are formed accordingly at current. Overseas leaders resembling Putin and US President Joe Biden are anticipated to personally interact with Erdogan for the decision of any bilateral situation.
Second, Erdogan’s declare at being the first interlocutor serves to bolster his picture at dwelling — the pro-government media usually calls him a “world chief” — and advance home propaganda, primarily amongst his personal base, that Turkey below Erdogan has turn out to be stronger and extra influential on the worldwide scene.
The professional-Erdogan Daily Sabah, as an example, headlined an article about Erdogan’s journey to Sochi as “President Erdogan to strain Putin to revive peace in Idlib” as if the Turkish chief had the higher hand on the problem. In actuality, he had a reasonably weak hand, heading to Sochi amid grave economic woes at dwelling and after a disappointing journey to New York for the UN Common Meeting the place he failed to fulfill with Biden.
Beneath Erdogan’s lead and reflecting his private type, Turkey’s overseas ties have turn out to be a very personalised affair that’s usually confrontational, quarrelsome, and fraught with grandstanding and bluster. It seems to be like Putin is the chief who analyzes this overseas coverage type the very best and manages to make use of it to his benefit the very best. Whether or not Biden shall be as prepared as Putin to accommodate Erdogan will turn out to be clear in late October, when the Turkish and US presidents are anticipated to fulfill on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Rome.
