As negotiations remain stalled over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Ethiopia is starting to make preparations for the third-stage filling of its mega hydroelectric dam on the Blue Nile, the principle tributary of the Nile River.
Abbas Sharaki, a professor of geology and water assets at Cairo College, expects Ethiopia to start engineering works in November in preparation for the third filling of the dam’s reservoir throughout the subsequent wet season.
He defined {that a} portion of the GERD will first be drained. Then, a concrete wall will probably be put up in February to lift the physique of the dam by a further 20 meters, so it reaches 595 meters total, he added.
Sharaki informed Al-Monitor that Ethiopia is looking for to retailer 10.5 billion cubic meters of water, as a part of its plan to succeed in 18.5 billion cubic meters by the tip of the subsequent wet season. An extra 10 billion cubic meters of water will probably be added yearly within the coming years till the goal of 74 billion cubic meters is reached.
The filling course of is carried out throughout the wet season that runs from June till September of every yr.
Sharaki added that Ethiopia will drain the center passage of the GERD by both operating the first turbine and producing electrical energy or just releasing water.
He stated satellite tv for pc pictures point out that Addis Ababa has but to start development work in preparation for the third filling.
In July, Ethiopia claimed to have efficiently completed the second filling of the dam’s reservoir to 13.5 billion cubic meters as deliberate. Nonetheless, Egyptian and Sudanese consultants allege that Ethiopia solely managed to retailer 3 billion cubic meters throughout the second stage along with the 4.9 billion cubic meters saved throughout the first-stage filling in July 2020.
Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia have been concerned in a bitter dispute over the GERD since Addis Ababa started constructing the dam a decade in the past. Efforts to resolve the dispute have reached a lifeless finish and there may be concern of a army battle erupting within the area. The African Union, which has been sponsoring the trilateral talks since June 2020, has did not mediate an answer to finish the stalemate within the negotiations. In its newest assembly within the Congolese capital Kinshasa in April, no agreement was reached on resuming the negotiations, with the three international locations trading accusations of blocking the method.
On July 19, Ethiopia introduced the completion of the second filling of the dam’s reservoir with sufficient water to generate hydroelectric energy after months of diplomatic escalation, which peaked with Egyptian threats of army motion ought to Addis Ababa go forward with the second-stage filling.
On July 8, the UN Security Council held a gathering upon Egypt’s and Sudan’s request in an effort to resolve the dispute.
On Sept. 15, the Safety Council referred to as on the three international locations to resume negotiations under AU sponsorship “to finalize expeditiously the textual content of mutually acceptable and binding settlement on the filling and operation of the GERD.”
Since then, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the present AU chair, has pushed the three international locations to resume negotiations, however to no avail.
Egypt and Sudan have requested that the negotiation mechanism include the United Nations, the European Union and the US alongside the AU. However Ethiopia insists that negotiations be held underneath AU sponsorship alone.
Sharaki stated that Ethiopia insists on working the dam’s generators and producing electrical energy with out reaching an settlement with its downstream neighbors.
“The scenario will additional escalate if the third filling is initiated unilaterally subsequent summer season. This transfer might push Egypt to contemplate all its choices, particularly for the reason that third filling goals to [add] extra water than the 2 earlier filling operations,” Sharaki stated.
Talking at a joint press convention along with his Hungarian counterpart Janos Ader in Budapest Oct. 12, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi stated that his nation doesn’t need “water to be the reason for a battle or conflict, however relatively be a supply of improvement and cooperation between international locations.” He added that Egypt is simply looking for to guard its annual share of the Nile River water, calling for a authorized and binding settlement on the operation and filling of the GERD.
Cameron Hudson, a senior fellow on the Atlantic Council’s Africa Middle, informed Al-Monitor, “I don’t assume there may be an instantaneous hazard now that we’ve got entered the dry season. There’s clearly a necessity for a brand new negotiation course of that’s severe, excessive stage and has strong international backing.”
Fears that the dispute will erupt right into a army battle rose forward of the second filling of the dam in July this yr. However these fears pale after September, when Egyptian Overseas Minister Sameh Shoukry outlined his nation’s efforts to avoid an armed conflict with Ethiopia, stressing that Egypt is dedicated to the negotiation course of.
Ethiopia insists that the $5 billion dam, whose development has reached 80% completion, is critical for its financial improvement. However Egypt considers the GERD a severe menace to its provide of the Nile water, on which it depends virtually totally for its wants.
Sudan, in the meantime, sees some benefits from the GERD accountable for the water circulation of the Blue Nile and the power that will be generated. However on the similar time, Khartoum seeks ensures that the dam’s operation will be safe and won’t have an effect on its personal dams, together with the Roseires, Sudan’s largest.
Corda Tiziana, a researcher for the Network for the Advancement of Social and Political Studies on the College of Milan, informed Al-Monitor that worldwide events may “take a step again from pressuring Ethiopia right into a binding deal after receiving proof of the regional advantages of the GERD.”
Tiziana stated, “In obvious contradiction to its harsh rhetoric concerning the filling operation, Sudanese firms have lately stepped up engagement with Addis Ababa to buy more electricity from it. And these actions assist gas Ethiopia’s narrative that what [it is] doing, even when unilateral, is helpful additionally for its neighbors.”
She added, “This will tilt the worldwide neighborhood away from Egypt’s extra confrontational positions. On this case, with weakening worldwide assist, it is exhausting to assume Cairo will attempt to pursue army motion towards Addis Ababa.”
However doubts stay about Ethiopia’s intentions on getting into negotiations with Egypt and Sudan — though Dina Mufti, the spokesperson for Ethiopia’s Overseas Ministry, stated Oct. 14 that his nation is able to enter negotiations at any time.
On Oct. 10, South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir Mayardit stated at a press convention with Sisi in Cairo that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed had promised to start negotiations on the GERD this month after an Ethiopian authorities is shaped, nevertheless it has not occurred.
Mayardit added, “[Ahmed] isn’t able to start negotiations due to the warfare the federal authorities is main towards the Tigray rebels.”
The Atlantic Council’s Hudson stated, “Ethiopia is taking part in for time. I believe it is usually true that it’s distracted by the war in Tigray and that [Ahmed] believes that if he can efficiently conclude that battle, which he thinks is backed by Egypt and Sudan, he will probably be in a a lot stronger negotiating place on the GERD when these talks begin. The longer he can delay a severe negotiation, the extra time he has to get the GERD operational. That leaves him in an excellent stronger place.”
Nonetheless, Tiziana believes that Ahmed’s new cabinet might make some concessions.
She stated, “Now that some opposition parties have been co-opted within the cupboard, Ahmed could have extra probabilities to debate with them concerning the content material of the subsequent GERD negotiations and attempt to discover consensus about some minor concessions similar to a temporary agreement on solely the subsequent filling — which isn’t one thing Egypt and Sudan need, however could possibly be an appropriate compromise between the 2 sides within the quick time period.”
