CAIRO – Turkey is just not Egypt’s largest buying and selling companion. The Egyptian pound is just not pegged to the Turkish lira in any method.
Nonetheless, Egyptians have been carefully following Turkey’s foreign money disaster, and there’s elation in Egypt on the sharp decline within the trade charge of the Turkish nationwide foreign money.
Some folks have even arrange what they referred to as ‘Lira Meter‘, an around-the-clock measure of the drop within the worth of the lira in opposition to foreign exchange, together with in opposition to the Egyptian pound.
“Egyptians are rejoicing on the Turkish foreign money disaster due to Turkey’s destructive insurance policies towards Egypt up to now decade or so,” Mohamed Rabie, a global relations researcher at native assume tank, Arab Middle for Research and Analysis, informed Al-Monitor.
Turkey and Egypt have been standing at reverse sides of the ideological spectrum, particularly in recent times. The federal government of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not welcome the 2013 army-backed rebellion in Egypt in opposition to Muslim Brotherhood president Mohamed Morsi.
Erdogan additionally criticized Egypt’s incumbent President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the military chief who led the army institution within the rebellion in opposition to Morsi. Sisi then won the primary post-Morsi presidential election by a landslide.
However Erdogan maintained his backing for the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, lashing out at Egyptian courts for sentencing the leaders and the members of Morsi’s motion.
Egypt banned the motion and its celebration, closed down their places of work and seized their funds and property. The nation additionally began a regional conflict in opposition to it, contemplating it the mom of all terrorist teams.
“Erdogan was particularly offended at Egypt for cracking down on the Muslim Brotherhood,” Muneer Adeeb, an Egyptian author specialised in Islamism, informed Al-Monitor. “The Brotherhood was the Turkish president’s software in reviving the Ottoman Empire, not solely in Egypt, but in addition in the entire area.”
Turkey additionally tried to undermine Egypt regionally and internationally, together with at international forums. It sought a foothold in Sudan and Libya, which border Egypt’s south and west respectively.
Turkey additionally adopted what Egyptian analysts described as destabilizing insurance policies within the East Mediterranean, a area with rising geostrategic significance for Egypt, given the Arab nation’s newfound pure gas wealth.
Rabie mentioned, “These insurance policies had been manifested within the 2019 safety and maritime boundary delimitation agreements the Turkish authorities signed with Libya in addition to Turkish exploration for fuel within the East Mediterranean.”
Turkey additionally supplied support to Ethiopia for its development of a gigantic dam throughout the Blue Nile, the primary tributary of the Nile River, which provides Egypt over 90 p.c of its water.
That is all current within the minds of most Egyptians as they comply with the Turkish foreign money disaster. The nationwide glee is evident on social media.
On the streets, some folks view the brand new disaster as an opportunity for Erdogan to pay for what they describe because the ‘harms’ he did to Egypt.
“I’ve been following the Turkish foreign money disaster from the very starting,” Sameh Osman, a civil servant in his mid-forties, informed Al-Monitor. “I anticipate the worth of the Turkish lira to maintain tumbling within the coming interval.”
In crowing over the lira’s lack of worth, Egyptians could also be considering that what goes round, comes round. When Egypt floated its nationwide foreign money in November 2016, Turkey-backed Muslim Brotherhood activists celebrated the following drop within the worth of the Egyptian pound.
The Central Financial institution of Egypt needed to liberalize the trade charge of the pound to eradicate a then-thriving parallel overseas foreign money market and restore traders’ confidence within the nationwide economic system.
Nevertheless, the identical determination triggered the pound to considerably depreciate in worth, shedding most of its worth to foreign exchange, particularly the US greenback, the primary buying and selling, import and export foreign money on this nation.
The drop within the Turkish lira, native economists say, will profit the Egyptian economic system in some ways.
“Egypt can stand out as a substitute funding vacation spot to Turkey, particularly if the foreign money disaster worsens within the coming interval,” Khaled al-Shafie, the top of the native assume tank, Capital Middle for Research and Financial Analysis, informed Al-Monitor. “The anticipated drop within the worth of Turkish items may even profit the Egyptian industrial sector, which partly relies on uncooked materials imports from Turkey.”
Commerce between Egypt and Turkey was largely unaffected by tense relations up to now years. The trade amounted to $4.7 billion final yr. Turkish investments in Egypt quantity to $2.5 billion.
Public exaltation on the depreciation of the lira additionally comes as Cairo and Ankara take steps to fix their fences. Authorities officers from the 2 nations met a number of occasions up to now months to discover the way in which forward.
Stories say Egypt has given the Turkish facet a listing of calls for, together with the suspension of assist to the Muslim Brotherhood, stopping media attacks in opposition to Egypt, and withdrawing Turkey-paid mercenaries in Libya.
Nevertheless, Egyptians response to the foreign money disaster proves that Egyptians’ reminiscence is robust and unforgiving, analysts mentioned, and that will put stress on the Egyptian authorities.
“The issue is that Egyptians won’t settle for a mending of fences with Turkey that harms Egyptian pursuits,” Rabie mentioned. “I’m afraid the federal government could lose its credibility if it strikes forward with reconciliation.”
