The distinctive image of the clenched fist has turn out to be synonymous with numerous revolutionary, social and political actions internationally. The imagery of a fist clutching an assault rifle is usually related to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and supported armed actions in different nations, reminiscent of Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Yemen’s Ansar Allah (Houthis) and the Fatemiyoun and Zainebiyoun, composed of Shia Afghan and Pakistani fighters, respectively. But, there seems to be a brand new addition in Shia-majority Azerbaijan.
Amid the rising tensions between Iran and neighbouring Azerbaijan, a number of pro-IRGC accounts on social media acknowledged {that a} newly-announced resistance faction has emerged within the South Caucasus republic – the Huseynyun. Whereas subsequent to little is understood concerning the group – allegedly shaped in 2019 through the Syrian battle, solely to be formally activated lately – the Huseynyun bears all the primary hallmarks of different factions in an alliance with the Islamic Republic, often called the “Axis of Resistance”, yellow and inexperienced color co-coordination and clutched assault rifle included.
Tehran
IRGC🇮🇷 affiliated channels are very vocal about activation of a brand new IRGC paramilitary pressure in Azerbaijan🇦🇿, referred to as Huseynyun حسينيون, aimed pressure between #Azerbaijan & #Iran. Simply this week🇵🇰🇦🇿🇹🇷 held drills in Baku, adopted by Iranian drills on the Iran-Azeri border pic.twitter.com/ZRfUdEszsu— Talha ahmad (@talhaahmad967) September 29, 2021
Such developments have the propensity to result in inner safety and political instability within the resource-rich nation, provided that, regardless of being a Shia-majority nation, it’s nonetheless largely secular after years of Soviet rule. Critically, too, that the present authorities is an in depth and vital ally of Israel and a brotherly nation to Turkey. Though Tehran has beforehand sought to export its revolution to Azerbaijan, it had by no means discovered a lot success. For instance, the Islamic Party of Azerbaijan (AIP), established in 1991, the identical 12 months because the founding of the republic, was dissolved 4 years later, after being accused of being covertly funded by Iran with the intention of overthrowing the federal government and turning the nation into an Islamic republic. The get together remained energetic for a number of years, culminating within the 2011 arrest of get together chief Movsum Samadov.
OPINION: What is going on between Iran and Azerbaijan?
However, the IRGC’s Quds Power has been energetic in Azerbaijan for the reason that early ’90s, in accordance with Israel’s Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Info Centre (ITIC). For the reason that nation’s independence, the Quds Power: “Has engaged in subversive actions towards the Azeri regime. Iran’s goals are to destabilise Azerbaijan, to stress its regime into altering the nation’s secular character and to vary its pro-Western orientation and hurt its good relations with Israel.”
پرچم نیروهای مقاومت اسلامی آذربایجان در مزار سردار شهید سلیمانی
— سید احمد (@father1347) October 2, 2021
Some former AIP members additionally discovered their means into Azeri Hezbollah, which has existed within the nation since 1993, with arms and funding from Iran and Jaysh Allah, established in 1995, and as soon as plotted an assault towards the US Embassy in Baku.
From a practical perspective, Iran perceives Azeri nationalism as a risk to its personal inner affairs because of the massive Azeri ethnic minority in its northern Azerbaijan province. Whereas sustaining ties with Baku, Iran has been perceived as being extra supportive of Azerbaijan’s nemesis, Armenia. It’s for these causes that Iran is aware of it should tread fastidiously when coping with its neighbour, which was as soon as a part of the Persian Empire and Qajar Iran. Iran was already seen as the largest loser by way of the Turkish-Russian-brokered ceasefire settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan over final 12 months’s Nagorno-Karabakh Warfare, with the stability of energy tipped within the latter’s favour.
But the over-arching concern is Israel’s rising proximity to Iran’s borders by way of its navy and political relations with Azerbaijan, which Iran, earlier this week, has been adamant that it’ll not be tolerating and warned towards any geopolitical adjustments within the area. There may be additionally the priority of the deployment of Turkish-backed Syrian mercenaries in Azerbaijan, which had been a improvement through the battle final 12 months.
אזרבייג’ן רואה במשטר האייתוללות כאחד מאיומיה הגדולים ובישראל כחברתה הטובה, ובשל כך את ההקלטה הזו הם ממש לא ישמחו לראות: חיילים אזרים שורפים את דגלי ישראל וארה”ב, תוך שהם אומרים “במלחמה מול צבא האל אתם תפסידו. אנחנו לשירותך חמינאי” 🇦🇿🇮🇱#Azerbaijan #Israel #İsrail@IsraelHayomHeb pic.twitter.com/JlDGXfXnTD
— Dean Shmuel Elmas (@ElmasDean) May 14, 2021
Will probably be extremely unlikely that Iran’s military drills close to the border following joint Azerbaijani-Turkish-Pakistani warfare video games final month will result in any escalation that fashionable diplomacy will not be capable of defuse. Nonetheless, judging by Iranian strategic pondering and overseas coverage, such shows are inadequate to function a deterrent or to guard Iranian pursuits and its borders towards hostile overseas parts.
OPINION: It’s a challenge to support Azerbaijan when its government is pro-Israel
As such, Tehran might discover that it depends on a constant and efficient coverage of funding subversive opposition teams, or supporting armed factions below the umbrella of the Axis of Resistance. For instance, in 2012, Azeri authorities convicted 22 members of a bootleg community dealt with by the IRGC who had been discovered responsible of conspiring to hold out terrorist assaults on Israeli and Western targets. Aside from Iraq, Azerbaijan, being a Shia-majority nation, could be distinctive in comparison with Iran’s involvement in different nations, but in addition because of the progressive attitudes to faith within the nation.
But evidently, there was energetic recruitment along with Iranian pursuits, and spiritual and political sentiments are, in fact, not monolithic. One undated video that circulated on social media earlier this 12 months confirmed what gave the impression to be two Azerbaijani troopers burning the US and Israeli flags whereas voicing their allegiance to Iranian Supreme Chief Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei. Any additional provocations perceived by Tehran in Azerbaijan might not result in a battle within the typical sense, however the emergence of the Huseynyun is an indicator that Iran has choices to confront its enemies throughout the border within the Caucasus via unconventional means.
The views expressed on this article belong to the writer and don’t essentially mirror the editorial coverage of Center East Monitor.
