Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been keen to spice up army gross sales to international patrons, however his international coverage typically snags his ambitions. Worldwide curiosity in Turkey’s flourishing protection business has risen because the Azerbaijani-Armenian battle over Nagorno-Karabakh final yr, during which the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 armed drones have been broadly touted as key to Azerbaijan’s military success. Most lately, Iraq has expressed curiosity in shopping for TB2 drones and assault helicopters from Turkey, however Baghdad’s efforts to connect strings to the deal has thrown a spanner within the works.
Iraqi Protection Minister Juma Inad revealed in late August that Baghdad had reached a preliminary understanding with Ankara to purchase an unspecified variety of TB2 drones and had additionally requested for gives for 12 T129 ATAK helicopters and 6 KORAL digital warfare techniques. The minister spoke after assembly along with his Turkish counterpart Hulusi Akar at a world protection business honest in Istanbul earlier in August.
It was thrilling information for Turkey that Iraq, typically squeezed between the USA and Iran, was turning to Turkey for army tools. Iraq wants such weapons to combat the resurging Islamic State and beef up its protection capabilities as Washington prepares to end its combat mission in Iraq.
A Turkish supply conversant in the talks instructed Al-Monitor that the Iraqis had first expressed curiosity in shopping for Turkish weapons throughout Akar’s January go to to Baghdad, however introduced different dossiers to the negotiating desk in ensuing conferences. In return for army purchases, the Iraqis requested for a rise within the circulation charges within the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, which originate in Turkey and circulation right down to Syria and Iraq, and the withdrawal of Turkish troops from the Bashiqa base close to Mosul, based on the supply.
Baghdad has additionally been irked by the growth of Turkish cross-border army operations towards the Kurdistan Employees Social gathering (PKK), the outlawed armed group that has fought Ankara since 1984 and has lengthy taken refuge within the mountains of Iraqi Kurdistan throughout the border. Turkey’s cross-border pursuit of the PKK is nothing new, however Turkish operations have lately expanded past PKK camps alongside the border, reaching so far as Sinjar and Makhmour. Although Baghdad has protested the operations, it’s properly conscious it can not affect Ankara on this situation and has not introduced it up as a situation. Nonetheless, any concessions from Turkey on the water situation amid the water shortages in Iraq and its army presence in Bashiqa would imply ample brownie factors for Baghdad in home politics.
Although the prospect of Turkey’s withdrawal from Bashiqa can’t be dominated out, Ankara has refused to make its anti-terrorism efforts a topic of bargaining. Equally, it’s reluctant to make a dedication on the quantity of water circulation to Iraq. Turkey has lengthy argued that water shortages in Iraq should do with the nation’s out of date irrigation system and poor water administration along with decreases in rainfall.
Again in 2019, Erdogan appointed a special envoy to Iraq for a mission centered on enhancing Iraq’s water administration. Water shortages in Iraq and Syria are sometimes blamed on Turkey and its dams on the Euphrates and the Tigris. Underneath a 1987 protocol on the Euphrates with Syria, Turkey is required to let at the least 500 cubic meters per second of water circulation to Syria. On the Tigris, nonetheless, it has made no dedication to Iraq. Turkey contributes only 40% to the water flow of the Tigris, whereas Iraq contributes 51% and Iran 9%.
Requested why the Iraqi authorities would go for Turkish army tools, the supply pressured that the displaying of the TB2 drones in Nagorno-Karabakh performed an essential function, as did Iraqi hopes of extracting concessions on contentious points with Turkey. Iraq, the supply added, is on the lookout for various suppliers to scale back its dependency on US weapons and munitions, particularly after “the issues encountered within the improve of its F-16 jets.”
Russia, China and Iran have emerged as different various suppliers. “Curiously, the Russians haven’t made a powerful push so as to add a army dimension to their ties with Iraq,” the supply noticed. “The Nagorno-Karabakh battle introduced the Turkish choice to the fore. Iraq’s wants focus totally on techniques and munitions to be used in preventing terrorism. What Turkey might supply on this regard seems affordable to them,” he added.
The supply mentioned that no particular response has come from Washington to this point, however pressured that US affect would definitely sway Iraq’s final choices on army purchases. “They aren’t able to twist the USA’ arm,” he mentioned.
Washington is more likely to be involved over the danger of Iran-linked Shiite militias getting ahold of armed drone applied sciences. Furthermore, the Turkish protection business is dealing with critical fallout from political crises with Washington, together with sanctions over Ankara’s buy of the Russian S-400 air protection techniques.
A living proof is a $1.5 billion contract with Pakistan for 30 T129 ATAK helicopters, signed in 2018 as Turkey’s largest ever arms sale. But, Turkey has didn’t ship the helicopters resulting from Washington’s refusal to situation export licenses for US applied sciences used to make the gunship, together with the engine. Pakistan agreed to a different extension of the supply deadline in March, however may find yourself revisiting a Chinese language supply for the CAIC Z-10 assault helicopter.
For the reason that Nagorno-Karabakh battle, Turkey’s armed drones, too, have come within the crosshairs of the US Congress. In a bipartisan letter to Secretary of State Antony Blinken in August, 27 lawmakers known as for “a right away suspension of any export permits for US drone expertise to Turkey,” arguing that Turkey’s drone program “has destabilized a number of areas of the globe and threatens US pursuits, allies and companions.”
Canada has already suspended the exportation of some drone expertise to Turkey over the alleged use of Canadian-made tools by Azeri forces in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Final yr Iraqi officers signaled curiosity in buying Su-57 warplanes from Russia. They’ve additionally intermittently contemplated shopping for Russian S-400 or S-300 air protection techniques. But, the US sanctions on Turkey over the S-400s are believed to be forcing Baghdad to assume twice concerning the extent of its cooperation with Russia.
Iraq acquired 20 Chinese CH-4B drones in 2015, however has misplaced eight of them in operations towards IS, whereas the remaining items have been grounded by maintenance issues. And with the issues plaguing Iraq’s F-16 fleet, Turkey’s TB2 drones do seem as a low-cost, high-efficiency possibility for Iraq.
But, the political instability and uncertainties in Baghdad stand out as one other caveat. “Getting choices made after which implementing them just isn’t straightforward with Baghdad, not solely when it comes to the protection business cooperation supply however in different initiatives as properly,” the supply instructed Al-Monitor, citing for instance the Turkish envoy’s failure to make progress on water administration.
The upcoming Iraqi elections have raised uncertainty on how lengthy it would take to have a brand new authorities in place. “Commitments made in such an surroundings are of low credibility,” the supply mentioned. “But, if political hurdles are overcome, Iraq may gain advantage drastically from army cooperation with Turkey. … Coaching and tools assist from Turkey in addition to Turkey’s expertise in preventing terrorism are essential for them,” the supply added.
From Ankara’s perspective, the systemic drawback standing in the way in which of protection cooperation will proceed it doesn’t matter what authorities emerges from the Iraqi elections. Additionally, the spats over water and army bases stay essential on the Iraqi facet. Baghdad’s strategy to army cooperation seems based mostly on soothing its home public.
