The compulsory references to the US and Turkey as NATO “allies” and “companions” more and more fall flat, as bilateral relations could also be approaching the breaking level over variations on Russia and Syria.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who met on Sept. 29 along with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, stated that Turkey just isn’t solely going forward with the acquisition of the Russian S-400 missile protection system, which has led to US sanctions, however is contemplating deeper protection cooperation with Russia, together with growth of plane engines, ship constructing and warplanes, as we report here.
As for Turkey’s position within the US F-35 fighter jet program, which value Turkey a reported $1.4 billion, Erdogan adopted a take it or go away it stance on Sept. 30, saying “either they will give us our planes or they will give us the money.”
Erdogan: US-Turkey trajectory ‘doesn’t bode properly’
Erdogan’s assembly with Putin adopted what Erdogan perceived as a snub from US President Joe Biden through the UN Normal Meeting conferences in New York final month.
Irrespective of that Biden didn’t even spend the evening in New York, and met with only a few world leaders. Many heads of state and authorities gave their speeches nearly this yr.
Erdogan would have settled for a photograph op and a few pressured or false bonhomie with Biden, particularly for no less than the phantasm of leverage or stability forward of a gathering with Putin on some prickly points, together with Ukraine and Syria (see under).
“It’s my hope that, as two NATO nations, we should always deal with one another with friendship, not hostility,” Erdogan stated in New York. “However the current trajectory doesn’t bode properly. The purpose we’ve got reached in our relationships with the US just isn’t good. … I can not say issues have gotten off to a superb begin with Biden.”
“When it comes to Erdogan’s picture inside Turkey, his New York efficiency seemingly didn’t create a lot affect, neither positively nor negatively,” writes Cengiz Candar.
Erdogan’s assembly with Putin, following the flop on the UN, might have bolstered an extra tilt east in Turkey’s international coverage.
“Underneath Erdogan, Turkey is steadily crusing towards a non-Western trajectory in a multipolar world the place China is rising in its East,” provides Candar. “Erdogan’s cautious tone in regard to the Uyghur issue throughout his UN speech additionally mirrored his efforts to not appeal to any outrage from Beijing. When it got here to concentrating on the US and the Western world, in the meantime, Erdogan didn’t mince his phrases.”
Putin tries to reconcile Turkey on Ukraine ….
“Negotiations with Turkey are typically tough, however we’ve got at all times left Sochi with a optimistic consequence,” stated Putin forward of the Sochi summit. “We learn to reconcile.”
However Erdogan’s place on Ukraine has up to now confirmed tough for Putin to reconcile.
“Turkey’s drone gross sales to Ukraine and Erdogan’s pledge to by no means acknowledge the Russian annexation of Crimea have been duly famous by the Russian facet, which considers each points vital to its nationwide safety and territorial integrity,” Fehim Tastekin writes.
“Erdogan reiterated his Crimea pledge throughout his deal with to the UN Normal Meeting after the Turkish Overseas Ministry declared that the Duma elections held in Crimea this month have ‘no validity for Turkey,'” provides Tastekin. “Furthermore, Ukrainian Overseas Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated that Ukraine was planning to arrange a drone plant for the joint manufacturing of Turkish-made TB2 drones.”
“Had Ankara been in a position to restrain its response to Moscow over the difficulty,” concludes Tastekin, “Turkey might have used the Russian annexation of Crimea as leverage in its negotiations with Russia. As a substitute, it has maintained its zero-sum place, drawing the wrath of Moscow.”
… whereas maintaining the strain on Turkey in Syria
Putin is probing whether or not the time is true for a Syrian navy assault on Idlib, the probably final stand of jihadist and Turkish-backed teams against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
“Russian air force jets have been pounding insurgent positions in and round Idlib, widening their assault to Turkish-occupied zones within the primarily Kurdish enclave of Afrin and close to Inform Tamir within the so-called ‘Peace Spring Zone’ occupied by Turkey in its newest cross-border offensive in opposition to the US-backed and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in October 2019,” reports Amberin Zaman.
Putin could also be inspired by the US withdrawal from Afghanistan as an indication that Washington is stepping again from “infinite wars,” as US-Russian diplomatic contacts on Syria have picked up, as Vivian Salama discussed in a recent Al-Monitor podcast.
Putin had met with Assad on Sept. 13, two weeks earlier than his assembly with Erdogan. Assad want to press forward in Idlib, however Putin is a extra cautious and deliberate participant, looking for better certainty about how it will play out in Ankara and Washington.
Idlib is managed by the previous al-Qaeda-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (“Liberation of the Levant,” or HTS). Based on its settlement with Russia, Turkey is tasked with lowering the affect of jihadists. HTS has been pursuing a makeover from its earlier picture, and “is refusing calls from al-Qaeda-affiliated Hurras al-Din (Guardians of Faith Group) to resolve their variations by Sharia arbitration,” Khaled Al-Khateb reports from Aleppo.
A US drone strike killed an al-Qaeda chief in Idlib final week.
From Russia’s perspective, Turkey is failing in its said mission to scrub up Idlib. From Turkey’s perspective, a Russian-backed Syrian assault on Idlib would compound its Syrian refugee disaster.
“Turkey’s primary fear is that any full-scale offensive on Idlib will drive as much as 1,000,000 Syrians towards the Turkish border,” writes Zaman.
For Erdogan, the infinite conflict in Syria has turn out to be a legal responsibility in Turkish home politics.
“Resentment is hovering towards the estimated 3.7 million Syrian refugees presently in Turkey, and people emotions are being cynically exploited by the opposition within the run-up to presidential and parliamentary elections which might be slated to happen in 2023,” Zaman writes ” … Along with his ballot numbers slipping to unprecedented lows, Erdogan is subsequently anxious to protect the established order in Idlib, no less than till then.”
Pinar Tremblay has the take here on the upcoming elections, noting that “opposition events, equivalent to Republican Folks’s Social gathering (CHP) have capitalized on the anti-immigrant and anti-refugee sentiment and rising safety vulnerability.”
“Turkey has not too long ago suspended the issuance of the momentary safety ID card — generally known as Kimlik — for Syrian refugees who want lifesaving therapy inside Turkish territories, changing it with a medical tourism doc,” Sultan Al-Kanj from Idlib.
Metin Gurcan experiences that a number of latest excessive profile retirement requests by common officers could possibly be one other signal of rising dissatisfaction with Erdogan’s Syria coverage.
Putin can also be cautious {that a} Russian-backed Syrian assault on Idlib could possibly be a tripwire for a Turkish offensive in opposition to the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) within the Autonomous Administration of Northeast Syria (AANES), writes Kirill Semenov.
Turkey considers the Folks’s Safety Models (YPG), the Syrian Kurdish armed teams which make up the majority of the SDF, as terrorists linked to the Kurdistan Staff Social gathering (PKK).
US and Turkish variations on the SDF have confirmed irreconcilable and bitter.
On Sept. 29, Erdogan referred to Brett McGurk, the US Nationwide Safety Council coordinator for the Center East and North Africa, as “actually supporting terrorism … he’s a director for the PKK and the YPG.”
Putin senses a gap to pursue his long-standing plan to engineer an agreement between the Syrian Kurds and Damascus that will be acceptable to Ankara — a revision of 1998 Adana settlement, which defused Turkish-Syrian tensions over the PKK.
Russia, writes Semenov, “is making an attempt to push the Syrian Kurds right into a dialogue with Damascus, however with out US enter. The implication is that the Syrian Kurds themselves should start to distance themselves from the US’ in case the US steps again in Syria, because it did in Afghanistan.”
Stalemate as ‘deep struggling’ continues in Syria
Neither Biden, Putin, nor Erdogan appear able to upend the present establishment with no additional sign on what comes subsequent, a sort of fragile stalemate that might break down at any time.
Erdogan can’t ditch the US fully, as he and Putin will not be on the identical web page in Syria and Ukraine. He wants no less than the phantasm of an choice in coping with Putin to remain within the recreation. That is additionally a trump card for the US. The frustration for the Turkish president is that his international coverage is private and summit stage, as Gurcan writes. He and Putin meet and discuss typically. Erdogan and Biden, in distinction, don’t even attempt to pretend it nowadays.
In the meantime, Syrians proceed to endure.
Along with this “horrific dying toll,” referring to no less than 350,000 documented Syrian deaths within the civil conflict, UN Syria Envoy Geir Pedersen reported to the Security Council this week, “we might add different measures of deep affected by greater than a decade of battle. Greater than 12 million Syrians are displaced — that’s half of Syria’s pre-conflict inhabitants. Tens of 1000’s stay detained, kidnapped or lacking. Poverty ranges are approaching 90 p.c after a decade of battle, mismanagement and corruption, and now the affect of the Lebanese financial collapse, COVID and, certainly, sanctions. Syria is split into a number of de facto zones, with worldwide gamers jostling within the theater, in addition to violent episodes that proceed to check the relative calm of the final 18 months.”
