It might be fully coincidental that one of many predominant advertisements for Expo 2020, which opened Sept. 30 in Dubai, featured an Israeli flag proper over the top of Crown Prince Mohamed bin Zayed, the strongest particular person within the United Arab Emirates. Coincidental or not, it actually was symbolic. A flag that within the not-too-distant previous couldn’t be flown within the Emirates in any respect is now proper on the middle of issues – and definitely within the middle of financial affairs.
And the identical is true of Bahrain as nicely. In fast succession, these two nations broke a decades-long coverage amongst Gulf states by signing normalization agreements with Israel — as a result of it was in their very own pursuits.
Crucial of those pursuits are undoubtedly economic and commercial. The Abraham Accords are the clearest instance of integrating economics and diplomatic coverage. Israel merely wanted a chance to see this by means of, and received it due to an particularly pleasant US administration and a rising Iranian menace, which solely intensified (in Israeli and different regional eyes) by the 2015 nuclear settlement.
The numbers inform the story finest. Data from the Israeli Chamber of Commerce exhibits that from January to July 2021, commerce between Israel and the UAE got here to $270 million (and over $610 million, when diamonds are added to the determine). That is nearly thrice greater than the $94 million in all of 2020 ($190 million with diamonds). Commerce with the UAE in June 2021 was over 20 instances greater than in June 2020, amounting to $150 million (together with diamonds) in a single month.
A member of one of many eight wealthiest households within the UAE informed Al-Monitor on situation of anonymity that monetary forecasts by economists employed by his household’s agency imagine that the potential for commerce between the 2 nations may attain $3 billion by 2024 and $10 billion inside a decade. Israel’s whole worldwide commerce each year quantities to roughly $120 billion.
From a strategic, diplomatic, and navy perspective, the Abraham Accord diverted consideration from the Palestinian downside, which had, till then, impeded any progress in Israel’s relations with its neighbors. The signing went hand in hand with then-Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cancelled plan to annex West Financial institution settlements.
The nice and cozy welcome that Israelis have obtained since then within the UAE and Bahrain, and that their residents have obtained in Israel, isn’t just a constructive instance of cultural tourism. It alerts the Gulf states’ option to sideline the Palestinian concern and type a strategic alliance with the nation that has the strongest navy capacities within the area. Israel may help them stand as much as the one neighborhood bully, who continues to threaten them – Iran.
The American withdrawal from Afghanistan signaled that the US could not all the time be there for reasonable states of the area. Thus, Israeli security support, each open and covert, is essential in lots of fields within the Gulf area, from cyber warfare to the sharing of intelligence to the sale of weapons programs, even when there are nonetheless impediments to the latter.
There are monumental strategic advantages from the deal, which present Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and International Minister Yair Lapid have promised to proceed. A high Israeli official concerned in navy assessments and technique, chatting with Al-Monitor on situation of anonymity, mentioned that this alliance gives Israel a a lot nearer glimpse of what’s occurring only a few dozen kilometers throughout the Gulf from Iran. Even when Israel shouldn’t be there in particular person, its new allies may function its eyes and ears. This may be a big shift within the stability of energy with Iran.
Lapid paid an official go to the Emirates in June, and visited Bahrain Sept. 30 — in each circumstances, to inaugurate Israel’s new embassies. In Bahrain, he additionally visited the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet and mentioned, “Israel, Bahrain, and the US are partners in liberty and in a imaginative and prescient of a free world.”
These agreements not directly show how shut Israel actually is to the US, which is considered one of Israel’s best strengths. Netanyahu took benefit of this shut relationship as a lot as he may through the Trump presidency. In reality, it was adjustments in coverage launched by Trump at Netanyahu’s request which in the end led to the signing of those agreements. Even when this affect has declined considerably underneath the present administration, it stays extraordinarily useful to Israel, notably in Third World nations, which want an attentive ear in Washington.
Israel’s ambassador to the UAE, Eitan Na’eh, says that the settlement between Israel, Bahrain, and the UAE relies primarily on the financial, business and civic advantages. With out the coronavirus pandemic, he mentioned, commerce can be much more superior. “We used the last year to get to know the opposite facet higher,” Na’eh mentioned. “This was a mutual course of. The Emiratis are long-term planners. They’re thorough and cautious. The present evaluation is that the financial potential of those agreements may quantity to tens of billions of {dollars} in only a few years.”
Again in Expo 2021, the displays within the Israeli pavilion had been ready by completely different ministries, with an emphasis on agriculture, power, and cyber programs. They’ve all been met with appreciable curiosity. The International Ministry in Jerusalem attributes this to a particular tour of the pavilion earlier than it formally opened for 30 senior journalists from the Gulf and on-line opinion shapers from throughout the Arab world.
The spokesman for the Israeli pavilion on the Dubai Expo informed journalists that the host nation has supplied every thing it wanted. It is usually value noting that the Palestinian pavilion is only a brief distance away from the Israeli pavilion. This appears to be saying that whereas the Palestinian-Israeli battle has but to be resolved, maybe the time has come for the Palestinians to benefit from the financial advantages of a peace settlement with Israel and the normalization of relations.
