Throughout Iranian Overseas Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian’s go to to Moscow on Oct. 5, one of many essential matters of the talks along with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov was rising tensions in Iranian-Azerbaijani ties. At a press convention within the Russian capital, Iran’s prime diplomat voiced a range of complaints in opposition to Baku, specializing in Azerbaijan’s dealings with Israel. In flip, Lavrov made it clear that Russia is “in opposition to the buildup of navy exercise” within the South Caucasus and “in opposition to provocative workouts,” which ought to have been a sign to the Iranian facet about the necessity to scale back the stress.
Azerbaijan and Turkey carried out joint navy workouts in early September within the Azerbaijani Lachin area, as tensions between Baku and Tehran escalate.
Furthermore, the Russian overseas minister talked about that on the talks with Abdollahian he spoke in favor of making a “3 + 3” negotiation format, which would come with Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Iran, Russia and Turkey. That is essential to resolve regional points, he harassed.
On Oct. 1, Iranian floor forces began the “Conquerors of Khaybar” workouts within the northwest of the nation, on the border with Azerbaijan, utilizing armored items, artillery, drones and fight helicopters. This is without doubt one of the largest navy maneuvers the Iranian armed forces have carried out in current historical past close to Azerbaijan, inevitably sparking fears that it may very well be preparation for navy aggression.
Iran additionally accused Azerbaijan of cooperation with Israel. The top of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps in Tabriz, Col. Hossein Pursmail, stated that “the repetition of Israel’s threats in opposition to Iran by means of the mouth of Azerbaijan is just not solely not within the curiosity of Baku, additionally it is a menace to the latter’s very existence.” Additional statements by Iranian representatives expanded the checklist of Tehran’s grievances. For instance, Iranian lawmaker Mahmoud Begash pointed out that it couldn’t solely be about Israel: “If the Turkish journey and Azerbaijan’s conduct proceed, we’ll return Nakhchivan and Nagorno-Karabakh to the principle proprietor — Iran.” Each Nakhchivan and Nagorno-Karabakh are autonomous areas inside Azerbaijan
Tehran’s militaristic strikes close to the border with Azerbaijan, in addition to the disaster between the 2 international locations normally, are provoked primarily by the ambitions of the brand new Iranian management underneath President Ebrahim Raisi, which is probably going searching for to compensate for the failures of its predecessors by means of taking robust stances.
The overseas coverage of Raisi’s administration “is a balanced overseas coverage underneath energetic, dynamic and clever diplomacy. Our deal with Asia and the area doesn’t imply that we don’t take note of different areas together with the West,” Amir-Abdollahian instructed Iranian information agency ISNA.
Throughout the 44-day Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict in late 2020, the earlier Iranian administration, led by Reformists, tried to provide you with varied mediation initiatives. Nevertheless, the Iranian proposals didn’t arouse curiosity from the events to the battle themselves, nor from Russia and Turkey.
Tehran probably harbored a grudge, and Lavrov needed to particularly comment on the problem in December 2020, a month after the battle had ended, saying, “By the best way, I don’t do not forget that throughout all of the years of my tenure as Minister of Overseas Affairs of Russia, in the midst of our quite a few contacts with Iranian colleagues, the subject of Karabakh aroused curiosity throughout our consultations or negotiations.”
Thus, Iran, not like Russia and Turkey, felt as if its pursuits weren’t noticed following the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.
As well as, Iran — which views itself as a frontrunner globally for Shiite Muslims — has virtually misplaced its affect within the predominantly Shiite nation of Azerbaijan, and is making an attempt to compensate with direct help from Armenia. However by doing so, Tehran is difficult not solely Baku and its allied Ankara, but in addition Moscow. Tehran is making an attempt to turn into a guarantor of the safety and territorial integrity of Armenia and thereby scale back the Russian facet’s affect on the Armenian management. This was duly appreciated in Armenia itself, and Overseas Minister Ararat Mirzoyan unexpectedly went to Tehran on Monday, Oct. 4, the place he acquired corresponding assurances of help from the Iranian facet.
“Azerbaijan’s encroachments on the sovereign territory of Armenia threaten our efforts to make sure stability and safety within the area,” Mirzoyan stated throughout the go to. “On this regard, we extremely recognize the place of Iran relating to the territorial integrity of Armenia and the inviolability of its borders.”
By “encroachments on the territory” he meant the Zangezur Hall, a route that should move, in response to the agreements on Nov. 10, 2020, by means of Armenia and join the principle territory of Azerbaijan with the remoted Azerbaijani area of Nakhchivan. Understand that this method by Iran, which opposes the creation of this hall, additionally not directly contradicts the pursuits of Russia, for the reason that Russian border troops should make sure the safety of this freeway, which will surely present Moscow with further leverage within the South Caucasus.
The contours of the Russian-Iranian contradictions within the South Caucasus complement the Russian-Iranian competitors in Syria. The gradual accumulation of the battle potential of the 2 international locations, not like the mutual claims of Ankara and Moscow, remains to be hidden and never marketed, and in Russia it’s typically denied.
In Syria, Russia can hardly be glad with the fixed makes an attempt of pro-Iranian constructions, primarily the 4th division of Maher Assad, to take management of the territories on the borders with Jordan and Israel. If these areas are transferred to the 4th division, pro-Iranian formations may be deployed there, which is able to threaten Israel, Russia’s strategic associate within the Center East. Additionally, the the creation of a nearly autonomous pro-Iranian enclave within the Deir az-Zor area definitely worries Russia, together with Tehran’s affect on decision-making in Damascus normally, which remains to be decisive. Iran has additionally occupied many of the most engaging niches within the Syrian financial system, that are closed to Russian enterprise.
On the entire, for Moscow, contradictions with Tehran might turn into far more delicate than disputes with Ankara. Russia and Turkey are filling vacuums within the Center East and South Caucasus, not encroaching on one another’s spheres of affect, however solely dividing them (as occurred in Idlib or in Libya). Iran, then again, might attempt to begin pushing Russia out of the place the place it’s already entrenched, be it a part of Syria managed by Assad or Armenia. Additionally, Iran might compete with Russia for affect in Afghanistan, in addition to in Central Asia, notably Tajikistan.
