Six Russian touchdown ships from the Baltic and Northern Fleets, which had beforehand arrived on the Russian naval base of Tartus in Syria, had been transferred to the Black Sea on Feb. 8 to take part in navy maneuvers by the Russian military and navy.
The passage by means of Tartus as soon as once more demonstrated the significance of this facility for Moscow’s Mediterranean fleet. Tartus not solely serves as Russia’s foothold within the Center East, but in addition as a component of navy infrastructure for Moscow’s international confrontation with Washington and Brussels. The identical applies to the Khmeimim Russian air base in Syria, whose capabilities have been expanded recently.
The Russian navy marketing campaign in Syria, which started in 2015, in lots of respects ready Moscow on a military-technical stage for the present confrontation between Russia and america and NATO, in addition to the Russian-Ukrainian escalation.
Russian President Vladimir Putin inherited an incompetent Russian military with an archaic construction and outdated weapons, which was struggling to suppress the guerrilla actions of separatist militants within the Chechen Republic. The Russian-Georgian battle of 2008 revealed major problems within the Russian military, related to the obsolescence of not solely navy gear, but in addition auxiliary means (for instance, communications). It known as into query whether or not Russian armed forces might defeat an enemy geared up with fashionable weapons — such because the armies of NATO international locations.
The Syrian marketing campaign has turn into an essential preparation for Russian armed forces to confront stronger adversaries than the small Georgian military or the Chechen separatist guerrillas. It was not sure whether or not the re-arming of the Russian military that began after 2010 might meet fashionable necessities, and the Syrian marketing campaign turned a test site for experimenting with these weapons in fight circumstances.
Whereas Russia began the Syrian marketing campaign counting on the previous however confirmed Su-24 front-line bombers, it later shifted its primary hanging power in Syria to depend on new Su-34s. The latter confirmed high combat effectiveness within the occasion of a hypothetical battle in Europe.
As well as, Russia’s exercise in Syria afforded the chance to check Russian Caliber cruise missiles, with a spread of 1,500-2,000 km and that are launched each from warships and plane. If crucial, these missiles may even be geared up with a nuclear warhead. When Moscow first started utilizing these missiles in Syria, problems arose, however these shortcomings had been ultimately eradicated, and now the Caliber is acknowledged as a really efficient fight weapon. It may be used from small-tonnage vessels, for instance, river-sea missile ships of the Buyan-M sort. This makes it potential to bypass the settlement limiting the deployment of medium-range missiles in Europe.
It’s open for debate if there’s a direct connection between the Syrian marketing campaign and the present escalation between Russia and NATO. Nevertheless, Russia’s navy operation in Syria has clearly given Moscow the arrogance for difficult the West.
“The Syria marketing campaign actually performed a component within the Russia-West confrontation,” Samuel Ramani, an affiliate fellow on the Royal United Service Institute (RUSI), instructed Al-Monitor. “Russia proved that it might intervene militarily in a decisive trend with an incoherent Western response. … Furthermore, Russia’s use of recent navy applied sciences set a helpful precedent for interventions elsewhere, together with within the post-Soviet area.”
Leonid Isaev, an assistant professor on the Moscow-based Greater College of Economics, instructed Al-Monitor the Syrian marketing campaign helped to form the picture of Russia each inside and out of doors the nation as an ideal energy with corresponding navy energy.
“This was the final brick within the basis of Russia’s ‘nice energy,’ after which even critics of the Russian regime had little doubt that Moscow actually is a good navy energy able to enjoying on an equal footing with america and NATO,” Isaev mentioned.
Along with the military-technical dimension of the Russian marketing campaign in Syria, Moscow’s expertise with NATO member international locations comparable to Turkey can also be enjoying a task within the confrontation.
Particularly, the sport of repeatedly elevating the stakes has turn into a part of the connection between Moscow and Ankara over Syria. An analogous technique was examined in 2015, when a Turkish F-16 fighter shot down a Russian Su-24 front-line bomber, which led to the collapse of Russian-Turkish relations and put each international locations at risk of a navy conflict in Syria. In early 2020, Turkey and Russia once more approached an open military conflict in Idlib after Syrian — and, presumably, Russian — warplanes carried out strikes on the Turkish navy.
Nevertheless, at the moment the events had been nonetheless in a position to compromise, even if they initially put ahead calls for that had been unacceptable to one another. This expertise could have given the Russian management confidence that the Kremlin will be capable to get out of any escalation, discovering a mutually acceptable answer with the West.
As Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of Russia in World Affairs, instructed The New Yorker, “It appears like a basic diplomatic recreation of escalation, wherein either side, Russia included, show their adamance with reasonably dramatic gestures.”
In flip, Leonid Isaev instructed Al-Monitor: “Undoubtedly, the Syrian operation gave Moscow confidence in actions in different areas as effectively. Each by way of conduct in Ukraine and by way of conduct in direction of NATO. Due to Russian coverage within the Center East, the Kremlin has realized to play for larger charges, realized to bluff and realized to articulate its place and situation ultimatums.”
