Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s go to to the UAE in mid-February was not an peculiar occasion like different visits, because it got here after a chilly battle between the 2 international locations through which the accusations exchanged reached an unprecedented stage, to the extent of conspiracy and threatening nationwide safety. The go to aimed to cease, if solely briefly, this chilly battle, and to attempt to substitute it on the very least with a “chilly love” though the UAE confirmed its “heat love” or reasonably its “false love” in a festive welcome that was so exaggerated, to the purpose that it was unbelievable and revealed that there’s something behind it.
Regardless of this very festive present, Turkey has not, and won’t, overlook the UAE’s participation within the failed coup try in the summertime of 2016, nor the conspiracies that preceded and adopted towards the Turkish economic system, and the unfold of safety unrest. In the meantime, the UAE won’t overlook its mission to destabilise the Turkish rule, given it’s a part of the Islamic venture that the UAE is preventing around the globe, even when it has to briefly abandon the venture.
The UAE might have lastly realised that its strikes to overthrow Erdogan or destabilise the Turkish safety and economic system within the earlier blatant method led to failure, and it has no different probability of success and, due to this fact, it determined to decide on a brand new path by way of its massive respectable presence inside Turkey, whether or not by way of its community of diplomats, traders, journalists, and so forth. It could even be in dire want of Turkey to make sure its safety within the face of imminent Iranian risks with the progress of the Iranian-American nuclear negotiations, which can end in Tehran because the chief of the Gulf area or, in different phrases, “a thug accepted by the US”. Subsequently, the UAE fears for itself from this thug that doesn’t conceal its ambitions for it, and which already occupies three of its islands (the Higher Tunb, the Lesser Tunb and Abu Musa), which is predicated on a household root within the UAE, as many of the main Emirati households that management the economic system are of Iranian origin. In any case, the Emirati authorities palaces are within the vary of the “Iranian slingshot” and don’t want intercontinental missiles.
Therefore, the UAE realises the necessity to depend on a pressure that may shield, given the potential of Washington’s failure. Abu Dhabi noticed the results of this pressure’s (Turkey’s) intervention in neighbouring Qatar, because it rescued Qatar from a ready-made invasion plan through which the Emirates itself was a companion.
Turkiye-UAE cooperation important for stability of entire region: Turkish leader
Furthermore, the UAE, which has just lately turn into a frequent goal of Houthi missiles, realises that these missiles are Iranian, and that they won’t cease except they discover one thing that deters them. This deterrent will likely be Turkey and its Bayraktar drones, which have confirmed their effectiveness in lots of different risky areas, corresponding to Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh, and altered the equations on the bottom in these areas in favour of the social gathering utilizing them. The outcomes of this Emirati-Turkish rapprochement might quickly seem within the type of stopping Houthi missiles towards Emirati targets.
The UAE might really feel that it has the power to push Turkey ahead on the trail of additional normalisation with Israel, profiting from Ankara’s previous normalised relations with Tel Aviv, and up to date efforts to develop relations. It should contemplate that any progress in these relations, as indicated by the precise developments on the bottom, will likely be a hit for the Emirati normalisation plan beneath the title of the Abrahamic faith, and what an ideal success it could be if the UAE succeeded in persuading Turkey to fall beneath this umbrella.
The Turkish targets of that go to are, in fact, totally different, because it comes throughout the framework of diplomatic efforts to ease stress with many events to serve inner pursuits, particularly the Turkish economic system, which wants Gulf funding flows and the Gulf markets. Turkey additionally desires to keep away from extra Emirati plots at a time when preparations for the presidential elections to be held in the summertime of subsequent yr started early. It considers that normalising its relations with the UAE would be the handiest strategy to develop relations with all Gulf international locations, together with Saudi Arabia, which can finally discover itself compelled to normalise its relationship with Turkey with concessions it didn’t need earlier than. It’s seemingly that the Turkish-Saudi disputes will likely be settled earlier than the tip of this yr and a brand new leaf will likely be turned, overcoming the homicide of Khashoggi and the next crises. This new leaf would be the key to ending the futile battle in Yemen.
Learn: Turkiye, UAE discuss strengthening bilateral defence cooperation
It’s clear that Erdogan’s go to to the UAE targeted primarily on the interior considerations of each international locations, specializing in the safety and funding information, however this doesn’t imply that non-domestic points weren’t mentioned. We talked concerning the normalisation file within the area and the potential of Turkey taking new steps in it, in addition to the potential of modifications within the Yemeni scene. Might the matter have an effect on the situations of the Egyptian opposition residing in Turkey, a lot of whom are on the UAE’s terrorist lists? Did the discussions embrace the expulsion of those opponents from Turkey? No information was reported about this, however an evaluation of the context of the go to and the priorities of every social gathering reveals to us that this difficulty was not a precedence for the UAE within the talks, because it had extra essential points, i.e. its personal safety, which is threatened by the Houthis and the Iranians. It’s illogical whereas it’s on this scenario to ask these whose assist they want, for different calls for that don’t concern it instantly, and as an alternative will go away that to the course of the Egyptian-Turkish talks.
The views expressed on this article belong to the creator and don’t essentially replicate the editorial coverage of Center East Monitor.
