Wednesday’s assembly between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, within the Russian resort city of Sochi was held utterly behind closed doorways, elevating questions concerning the agenda of the talks and their end result.
Even the length of the dialogue — roughly 2 hours and 45 minutes — added intrigue. Previous conferences between the 2 lasted for six hours. The brevity of their assembly this time may be interpreted in two other ways. Both the presidents maintained their very own opinions and noticed no room for altering them, or conversely, private chemistry between the 2 — and the well-established mechanism of departmental consultations — now permits them to achieve frequent floor sooner.
Erdogan and Putin ready for this assembly as ordinary. The Turkish chief made a number of notable and harsh statements on the UN General Assembly session final week, together with that Turkey doesn’t acknowledge Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014. In flip, the Russian president instructed the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense to organize Russian public opinion for negotiations.
Russian state media defined that Putin was distracted by the elections (a brand new parliament appeared in Russia per week in the past). However they assured that the Russian president at all times has trump playing cards up his sleeve for profitable negotiations.
Nonetheless, this was a deliberate distortion of the state of affairs. First, Putin went into self-isolation after assembly with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and returned solely on the day of talks with Erdogan. Second, Putin has lengthy distanced himself from home politics. He talks about geopolitics with enthusiasm, however in contrast to Erdogan, he doesn’t must publicly clarify his overseas coverage choices to anybody. Over the previous 12 months, there was virtually no opposition left within the Russian political system.
Earlier than the assembly, the Russian media assumed that the primary subject can be Syria. Russian International Minister Sergei Lavrov stated Sept. 25 that Putin and Erdogan would talk about Turkish implementation of the agreements to battle terrorists within the Idlib de-escalation zone. “Clearly, the tempo of implementation has been gradual,” he noted at the moment. In the meantime Turkish Protection Minister Hulusi Akar expressed hope that after negotiations between the presidents, “the agreements on Idlib might be totally restored.”
On the eve of the assembly, Kremlin Speaker Dmitry Peskov famous that subjects to be mentioned would additionally embody the bilateral commerce and financial partnership, in addition to the conditions in Syria, Libya, Afghanistan and the Caucasus. On the identical time, Peskov dominated out a dialogue of Crimea and Turkey’s participation within the Ukrainian Crimean Platform, though this was exactly what brought on a wave of criticism within the Russian media.
The reason being clear. The events initially didn’t intend to voice settlement on Syria. This can be a necessity within the present situations, when Moscow calls for that Ankara fulfill is March 2020 agreements and to unblock the M4 motorway in Idlib, and Ankara in flip calls for Moscow to meet the 2019 memorandum associated to the withdrawal of the Kurdish YPGs from Manbij and Tel Rifaat.
As well as, the Kremlin has turn into hostage to its actions within the Russian data house. The Russian media doesn’t really replicate the issues raised in the middle of the true Russian-Turkish negotiations. Russian journalists and the International Ministry criticize Ankara’s military-technical cooperation with Ukraine and Poland, primarily the export of Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones. However that settlement is balanced by shut military-technical cooperation between Russia and Turkey’s conventional opponents — Egypt and Greece.
Erdogan’s assertion on Crimea on the UN was removed from the primary. However this sounded in opposition to the background of lively strikes by Russian jets on the resettled Idlib, which invariably contributes to new flows of internally displaced individuals and the radicalization of the inhabitants. Thus, it doesn’t matter what Russian experts write earlier than the talks on Ankara’s susceptible place in Syria, it’s nonetheless not worthwhile for the Kremlin to roughly push the operation in Idlib and improve the depth of strikes in different zones with the presence of the Turkish army and the rebels interacting with them.
Makes an attempt to maneuver Assad’s military deep into Idlib can’t solely meet resistance from the Turkish armed forces, but in addition provoke a Turkish offensive into Manbij and Tel Rifaat. In spite of everything, this can be very tough for Moscow to meet its obligations beneath the 2019 memorandum, since they’ll supply little to the Kurds when the Individuals preserve a presence in japanese Syria. On this sense, Russia’s most advantageous situation for restraining Turkey is sustaining the present Syrian established order, and Moscow and Ankara are effectively conscious of this.
It’s no coincidence that Putin and Erdogan, earlier than the one-on-one talks, targeting itemizing the optimistic facets of their relations. The Turkish president thanked Russia for serving to to extinguish summer season forest fires, didn’t rule out commissioning the primary unit of the Akkuyu NPP a 12 months forward of schedule, and linked peace within the Center East with the event of relations between Ankara and Moscow. As well as, Erdogan himself suggested that Putin ought to talk about cooperation within the military-industrial advanced. In New York, Erdogan introduced his readiness to purchase from Russia the second regiment of the S-400 air protection system, however there are not any stories of a compromise up to now. Apparently, the director of the Federal Service for Navy-Technical Cooperation of Russia Dmitry Shugaev stated again in August 2020 that the contract for the second batch of S-400 had already been signed and the query was solely in its “monetary efficiency”. Apparently, he was referring to the disputes over the localization of manufacturing in Turkey.
In flip, the Russian president expressed gratitude to Turkey for its place on the TurkStream pure fuel pipeline, which lessens Ankara’s considerations concerning the European fuel market. He additionally famous the significance of the joint center in Karabakh for stability within the area and identified that the negotiations at all times have a “final positive result.” Talking about fuel, Putin, maybe not unintentionally, bypassed the tough subject of extending the settlement with the Turkish state-owned firm BOTAŞ and 7 non-public merchants. In September, Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller and Turkish Power and Pure Assets Minister Fatih Dönmez met to debate this subject, however the content material of the talks was not disclosed. BOTAŞ desires to conclude a medium-term contract for 3 years in reference to a attainable change in market situations and Ankara’s plans to start out its personal fuel manufacturing.
However, after the talks, Putin and Erdogan looked pleased and casually mentioned the extent of antibodies within the human physique after vaccination. Whether or not they have reached the required degree of compromise, we’ll more than likely discover out from the dynamics of Russian airstrikes in Syria.
