IDLIB — Following a spate of rocket assaults in areas of northern Syria underneath the management of Turkish-backed groups, Ankara is telling its Syrian opposition allies to arrange for a navy operation towards the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the Kurdish-led group Turkey says is behind the strikes.
On Oct. 11, only a day after a missile assault on a Turkish navy patrol killed two Turkish troopers close to the city of Marea, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said at a Cabinet meeting his nation is “fed up” with these assaults and “decided to eliminate the threats originating” from northern Syria.
The sentiment was echoed days later by Overseas Minister Mevlut Cavusolgu, who referred to as out Russia and the US for what he claimed was their failure to implement agreements to withdraw Kurdish forces from the Turkish-Syrian border. “Since Russia and the US did not honor their commitments, we should depend on ourselves and do what ought to be finished,” the highest diplomat mentioned at an Oct. 13 press convention.
On Oct. 15, Reuters cited two Turkish officers as saying Ankara is ready for the opportunity of launching new navy motion towards Kurdish fighters within the occasion of the failure in talks Erdogan plans to carry together with his US and Russian counterparts on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Italy on the finish of October.
On this context, a discipline commander within the Syrian Nationwide Military (SNA), affiliated with the Turkish-backed Free Syrian Military (FSA), informed Al-Monitor on situation of anonymity, “Greater than every week in the past, Ankara despatched us directions to extend our navy readiness. As navy formations, we ready navy automobiles and inspected weapons. However Ankara has but to find out the timing and site of the operation, whereas it requested Syrian Nationwide Military leaders to fulfill in Ankara quickly to debate the matter.”
He added, “The town of Inform Rifaat is underneath the management of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and it’s the supply of the bombing concentrating on the Turkish forces and civilians within the metropolis of Afrin and its countryside. The following Turkish operation will presumably be [in] Inform Rifaat, however it’s not that straightforward given the presence of the regime forces there as effectively the presence of Russian forces in Menagh close to Inform Rifaat. Turkey may additionally begin a battle within the metropolis of Ayn al-Arab (Kobani) within the northeastern countryside of Aleppo.”
Salih Muslim, chairman of the Democratic Union Social gathering (PYD), mentioned in press statements to the Kurdish Hawar information company on Oct. 18 that any Turkish navy operation in northeastern Syria will likely be met with violent resistance. He accused Turkey of hindering an answer in Syria.
“Turkey desires to eradicate the Kurds and all elements within the area by deploying its affiliated factions throughout the area,” Muslim mentioned.
Muslim additionally claimed the SDF by no means attacked the Turkish border as a part of their dedication to the settlement reached between Russia and Turkey in October 2019, which requires YPG forces to withdraw 30 kilometers (19 miles) from the Turkish border.
Muhammed al-Sukkeri, a researcher on the Jusoor Middle for Research who lives in Turkey, informed Al-Monitor, “It is vitally probably that Turkey will launch a navy operation [in north Syria] in mild of the rising SDF threats to focus on the depth of Turkish areas. Turkey could launch navy motion in six areas [in north Syria]. A few of these areas, nevertheless, are managed by Russia and thus could also be topic to negotiations.”
“However I consider that Turkey won’t quit Manbij, Inform Rifaat and Ain al-Issa, given their strategic significance. [The YPG] shedding management of those areas will deal a significant blow to Russia. Russia and Turkey could attain an settlement on the areas west of the Euphrates, specifically Ain al-Arab,” he added.
Sukkeri mentioned, “Any navy operation requires a bilateral settlement between Moscow and Ankara. Such a consensus requires some kind of Turkish concession, comparable to eradicating the opposition factions from the south of the M4 freeway connecting Aleppo and Latakia. Nonetheless, it will be tough for Turkey to surrender on the important thing freeway.”
He continued, “Within the occasion of such a consensus, it will be unlikely for Washington to oppose it figuring out that it’s at the moment not within the Syrian file until the Russian-Turkish understandings come to incorporate areas underneath US affect comparable to al-Darbasiyah and al-Malikiyah.”
Sukkeri indicated that “it’s unlikely that Turkey will launch a navy operation with out reaching a diplomatic and political settlement [with the players on the ground]. Nevertheless it stays a risk, and if it occurs, such an operation will largely have an effect on Turkey and the recognition of the ruling Justice and Improvement Social gathering (AKP) forward of the Turkish normal elections subsequent 12 months. But nonetheless, the AKP believes that such an operation will do it extra good than dangerous, which explains the repeated threats of launching navy motion in Syria.”
