Iran has introduced that it stopped the circulation of pure gasoline to Turkey for ten days, ranging from 20 January, as a result of a “technical failure”. This resulted in an electrical energy disaster for factories in Turkey. Questions have been raised in regards to the validity of the Iranian justification and the truth behind the motion. Is it, for instance, associated to Turkey’s current strikes in direction of reconciliation with the Gulf States?
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan referred to as his Iranian counterpart, Ebrahim Raisi, on Saturday to debate this concern, together with bilateral relations and regional issues, however the disaster is continuous, regardless of Tehran’s announcement that the circulation of gasoline to Turkey has resumed. Ankara has identified that Iran has not caught to its commitments, although, and that the quantity of gasoline it’s now sending just isn’t what had been agreed. Worldwide arbitration can be resorted to, stated Turkey, if Iran doesn’t meet its obligations.
In line with media reviews, a Turkish delegation in Tehran found that Iran had lower the gasoline provide so as to meet home demand. A “technical failure” was, due to this fact, merely not true and there may be extra to this than meets the attention. It’s essential to look elsewhere to find the true explanation for the gasoline disaster between Turkey and Iran.
Turkey introduced its new financial programme some time in the past to halt the slide within the worth of the lira, the success of which relies on manufacturing and export. With the manufacturing course of underway, Turkish exports have been reaching document ranges. Nevertheless, with energy cuts because of the lack of gasoline for energy stations, the manufacturing course of was all the time going to be hindered, hanging a blow to the financial restoration programme. This, in flip, little question embarrassed the federal government in entrance of the Turkish folks, making it look like unable to offer power in the course of winter.
Analysts consider that Ankara’s reconciliation efforts within the Gulf, and even with Armenia, can also be behind Tehran’s gasoline transfer. Such efforts have began to bear fruit. Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan visited the Turkish capital on the finish of November, and Erdogan stated that he’ll go to the UAE and Saudi Arabia in February. Talks to normalise relations between Turkey and Armenia started about two weeks in the past, with representatives assembly in Moscow.
READ: Are Türkiye and Armenia ending their animosity?
All of this worries Tehran and threatens its pursuits. The transfer to chop the gasoline provide might have been the Iranians sending a message to Ankara that it’s not proud of such reconciliation efforts basically, and Turkey-Gulf rapprochement particularly.
Regardless of the causes of the gasoline disaster are, they clearly spotlight the significance of power independence and various sources of provide. Turkey must diversify its sources as a matter of urgency, in order that it can’t be held “hostage” on this approach. It has intensified its exploration for oil and gasoline, on land and at sea, within the effort to be power self-sufficient. Ankara has introduced the invention of 540 billion cubic metres of pure gasoline within the Black Sea and expanded its investments in renewable and nuclear power tasks. The primary unit of the Akkuyu Nuclear Energy Plant is anticipated to be accomplished within the spring of 2023, and the Black Sea gasoline subject will enter service subsequent yr. Within the meantime, Turkey nonetheless must import oil and gasoline till the specified self-sufficiency is achieved.
However, an skilled in power affairs and advisor on the Ministry of Overseas Affairs, Caner Can, notes that Turkey’s dependence on Russia and Iran for pure gasoline has decreased considerably over the previous fifteen years, falling to 44.65 per cent of Turkey’s complete pure gasoline imports in 2020 from 81.9 per cent in 2005; the proportion of this from Iran was solely 11 per cent in 2020. Which means Ankara realises that this dependence not solely threatens its nationwide pursuits, but in addition its future plans and the independence of its international coverage, and is taking applicable steps to treatment the scenario.
This text first appeared in Arabic in Arabi21 on 26 January 2022
The views expressed on this article belong to the creator and don’t essentially mirror the editorial coverage of Center East Monitor.
